Key to Caucasus initiative: Armenia

The importance of this visit does not stem, as claimed by those who oppose it, from its being the first contact between Turkish and Armenian authorities. Indeed, Turkish authorities, including ministers and diplomats, have met with their Armenian counterparts many times in the past. We know that Gül, acting as the Turkish foreign minister and deputy prime minister, had talks with his Armenian counterparts on several occasions. For this reason, the approach taken by opposition parties such as the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Republican People's Party (CHP) -- which not only criticize Gül's visit, but also accuses him of treason out of some internal political considerations -- is not fair.

Moreover, unless a very exceptional situation had arisen attributable to the Armenian side, Gül had no other choice than to go to Yerevan. This is because Armenian President Sarksyan invited Gül to the match in a considerably successful move, giving the international community the very clear message that Armenians cannot be held responsible for the tension between two countries, and without bringing any liability to his country.

The experienced Turkish diplomacy is well aware of the fact any failure by Gül to accept this invitation would be interpreted by the international community as clear proof that it is the Turkish side that resists conciliation and dialogue for settlement of the problems between the two countries, and that it could not respond even to a simple gesture. Thus from the moment this invitation was made, Gül has known that this visit was inevitable. The crisis fueled in Georgia after this invitation was extended further added to the visit's inevitability, adding significance to it as well. Why? I will try to elaborate.

First of all, in the post-Georgian crisis era Turkey has built its Caucasus policy entirely upon the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Initiative, intending with this initiative to build confidence among the problematic countries in the region and create a positive atmosphere that will aid a peaceful settlement of the Caucasus crisis. One of the five possible participants in the Caucasus initiative is Armenia. It is impossible to construct an environment of security and stability in the Caucasus and exclude Armenia. If Turkey intends to reinforce mutual security and confidence among countries for the success of the initiative, there is nothing more meaningful than Turkey starting with Armenia, with which it has several unresolved problems. Also, no player other than Turkey has the resources and capabilities to halt the dangerous course of events in the Caucasus, where Russia is officially at war with Georgia, and Azerbaijan with Armenia. This becomes clearer as we remember that the Minsk group acting under the roof of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has failed.

As noted by diplomatic sources, Gül's visit does not contain any new proposal concerning the existing problems between the two countries. Turkey has not waived any prerequisite it has set up for dialogue with Yerevan: namely, an Armenia withdrawal of genocide claims, its halting the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin corridor, withdrawal of its territorial claims, its cessation of using the Armenian diaspora against Turkey, etc. However, the talks conducted by the foreign undersecretary, Ambassador Ünal Çeviköz, in Yerevan ahead of Gül's visit imply that Turkey, too, expects a new initiative to emerge in the bilateral relations.

This initiative will largely depend upon how the Armenian side welcomes Gül. It is obvious that the Armenians also need to establish a fair dialogue with Turkey in order to get rid of the country's isolation. They may either help two societies to overcome an important psychological threshold by adopting a constructive attitude during the visit, or they may frustrate this initiative, never to be repeated. Turkish diplomatic sources estimate that the signals of good intentions are to be given to the Turkish side during this visit -- progress cannot be made with prerequisites, but through parallel processes.