By now it has become certain that Super Tuesday produced a clear frontrunner on the Republican side while dramatically splitting the Democratic vote. Indeed, the race on the Democratic side is very exciting, and as many American observers have noted, it is the most dramatic race in living memory. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are locked in a close race that is likely to continue until the very end. Perhaps the nomination at the Democratic National Convention will be determined by super delegates. We will find out in the near future.First of all, it must be stated that Obama has generated a long-forgotten excitement among American voters, especially young voters. In particular he attracts first-time voters and African Americans. His message about change and the image of being an outsider of the Beltway appears to work well for him. That said most Turks are annoyed with his vocal endorsement of the Armenian issue. He is also too much of an unknown for most Turks and thus comes with a certain level of unpredictability.
Hillary's foreign policy team is well known to the Turkish establishment, and even her surname invokes sympathies here in Ankara. After all, Bill Clinton's visit to Turkey in 1999 signified a peak in Turkish-US relations. Interestingly, Hillary's endorsement of the Armenian issue produced a lose-lose situation for her as the Armenian diaspora announced its support for Obama right after her endorsement. Hillary's endorsement -- despite advice to the contrary by her foreign policy team -- did not serve her at all as it pleased neither Armenians nor Turks. Both candidates may regret in 2009 having endorsed this issue as the fate of HR 106 has shown it could become quite an embarrassment for Congress.
John McCain, although not widely known in Turkey, is seen as a person who understands Turkey's strategic value extremely well. He has not committed himself to the Armenian issue and has shown a principled stance on Iraq -- something Turks find genuine, particularly in light of the increasing signs that Iraq will remain a united state. McCain is seen as a candidate who has a balanced approach to Turks and Kurds in the region. It remains to be seen how he would do against either of the Democratic candidates. He might benefit from an early candidacy for himself and a bitter fight on the Democratic side until the very end. Such a scenario may provide McCain with invaluable time to beat a Democratic opponent, although most pundits tend to predict a Democratic victory regardless of the candidate.
Turks are following the US election very closely. It matters considerably to the rest of the world who is leading the administration in the White House. The Turkish establishment believes the US does not have the luxury of having a president without extensive foreign policy experience. The world, more specifically the Middle East, needs an engaged and responsive US president.
We Turks look forward to working with the new US president, who will hopefully focus on re-identifying a common agenda in Turkish-US relations. Turkey and the US have common objectives in the region. We need to find the proper mechanisms and channels of dialogue which will produce convergence. Our countries may again become the major security producing actors in the region. Regardless of who becomes the next US president, we are in for an exciting political time.
Get ready for sleepless nights glued to the TV screen.
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