Turkish forces have conducted around 24 operations against the PKK between 1983 and 1999 before the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, which changed the equation with regards to Turkey's neighbor.
In none of these previous operations have we, the Turks, had any information concerning a cost-benefit analysis.
We may not have one on the current operation either. But one thing is sure -- the difference of the latest operation from previous ones since the US has been supplying real-time intelligence, i.e., cooperation with Turkey, in the fight against the PKK and this cooperation has been endorsed not only by bureaucrats but by US President George W. Bush.
Many of Turkey's previous operations were conducted under a hot pursuit agreement between Turkey and Iraq, even after the first Gulf War of 1991, when northern Iraq came under the protection of the US-led forces operating from Turkey's İncirlik base.
In other words, those past operations, sometimes in cooperation with the Iraqi Kurds and sometimes while informing the US side to avoid possible friendly fire incidents, have been conducted within the legal context of the hot pursuit agreement, despite the fact that European countries in particular and the world public in general did not approve of Turkish incursions into its neighbor.
Though the current US real-time intelligence supplied to Turkey has never matched the previous intelligence given to Ankara on and off in the early 1990s, there is a previous record of Turkish-US cooperation on Turkey's incursions into northern Iraq. But as I wrote in one of my previous columns, intelligence support to Turkey was cut off by the US in the late 1990s, when Turkey allegedly engaged in grave human rights violations in northern Iraq.
We could then argue that the latest Turkish operation taking place after many years differs from the previous ones in many respects. Unlike the previous operations, the latest Turkish incursion is being conducted for the first time with fighters equipped with US-made Low Altitude Navigation and Targeting Infrared for Night (LANTIRN) night vision systems, which have enabled Turkish pilots to spot the right targets -- established by using the US real-time intelligence -- and to drop the bombs on the right places.
According to my information, not 50 as reported by the press, but around 10 to 13 F-16 fighters equipped with LANTIRN night vision systems participated in the night operations. More importantly, according to military sources, the US intelligence on the PKK hideouts played a crucial role in the operation.
We will know, perhaps later, the level of success of the operations by looking at whether the PKK threat has been minimized. But in my opinion one of the major messages that came out of the latest operation is that Turkey and the US have been working together against the PKK, which both defined as a common enemy after several years of US indifference to its close ally's PKK problem.
Have the Iraqi Kurds or the Iraqi central government approved this operation? My answer is no, but at least we could say that with the US pressure, they both have at least remained neutral.
The second key message that this operation should have sent is one for the PKK -- Turkey in a joint effort with the US can drop bombs on the terrorist camps. Lastly it has given the message to the Turkish public -- the majority of who were unfortunately prepared for an incursion as if it alone could be a solution to the PKK problem -- that Turkey can carry out an operation.
One of the biggest tasks at the moment is to prevent any possible conflict between Turkish forces and the PKK in northern Iraq following the operation. As long as Turkish-US cooperation in the fight against the KK continues, such a conflict is not expected to occur.
Now the big question is whether the Turkish government, which has so far successfully conducted crisis management through diplomatic channels, will be able to introduce a package that will involve partial amnesty for PKK members as well as offering the economic, social and political measures necessary for the region. Any operation falling short of any of these aspects will not succeed.
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