A stronger Russia and the EU valid?

The EU accuses Russia of using its energy exports as political leverage. This must have been felt mostly in Germany, because one of the main subjects in the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel was trade between their countries. There are other important issues for Germany concerning Russia. Firstly relations between Russia and Poland are deteriorating, and these are being dragged into some sort of circle of military coercion. Estonia and Lithuania also have some problems with Russia, and no one seems to be trying to resolve them. The presence of these countries in the debate concerning relations between Russia and the West reminds us of the historical border disputes in this geography. We should also emphasize the importance of Ukraine, which is a vital country for the Western energy corridor. In fact this country has already become the first key country of the balance mechanism between Russia and the West.

Russia makes deals with Central Asian countries on natural gas and oil, and at the same time it concludes pipeline construction treaties with Bulgaria and Greece -- thus succeeding in reaching the Mediterranean. While doing all this it launches two other important processes; firstly the reinforcement of space technology, including the defense field; secondly Russia tries to preserve authoritarian governments in countries that have relations with Moscow. This fact guarantees the maintaining of authoritarian regimes within its zone of influence. That’s why Putin must be very angry at Merkel’s meetings with Russian NGOs and her critical stance on anti-democratic attitudes in Russia. We should remember that Russia is also cooperating with the Central Asian countries in the domain of uranium exploration. If the “West” thinks that it’s being blackmailed over oil and natural gas resources and therefore decides to reinforce the role of nuclear energy in its consumption, it may find itself in another interdependent relationship with Russia. The latter appears to be certain that in an important part of the world no one should act without taking Russia into consideration.

It is impossible to know if the EU wants the democratization of Russia for the sake of the Russian citizens, but whatever the reason these efforts seem to be in vain as the balance between Russia and the US has no democratization at its base. If the souring mood of relations between Russia and the EU becomes more apparent, it’s clear that Europe’s security concerns will grow. Then Europe may seek greater security and turn to its old partners. The natural candidate for this friendship is the US, who has long been asking for the EU’s military and political support. Russia’s tough positions reinforce circumstances that help the rapprochement between the EU and the US. Obviously new French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Merkel’s accessions to power have a meaning; the French and German electorates have accepted what’s been injected into them. As the UK is the holder of the balance, it will soon have a new government, which will make the necessary arrangements for this new situation. In other words, while Germany and France keep the disagreements with Russia going, the UK will guarantee the existence of a negotiation ground.