Limit of soft power

The true reason behind the downing of the plane and its violation of Syrian airspace is a matter for debate. It is now being questioned as to whether the violation took place on the initiative of Turkey, or if it was carried out with the knowledge of the Western world. However, given that violation of airspace is an ordinary occurrence, it is obvious that the really important matter is the downing of the plane by Syria, deliberately and without any prior warning. On the other hand, the question is also being asked of to what extent this incident can be attributed to Syria or Russia. The whole incident suggests that Syria is trying to “externalize” its domestic warfare, considering that the plane was easily traceable, did not conceal its identity and was unarmed and unattended by other planes.

It appears that Turkey’s policy style so far, which takes into account humane considerations and ethical concerns, has put the country in a delicate position. The cost associated with provoking Turkey becomes less significant in the face of Turkey’s increased isolation against Syria, due to a lack of any strong political support from Western actors for the policies Turkey is pursuing in the Syrian crisis. If Syria is attempting to expand the sphere of warfare and the battlefield in order to dilute its domestic war and to create a new atmosphere of cold war, Turkey is its best option. From this perspective, it is not hard to imagine that Syria will find the justification it has been looking for.

The question should be why Turkey has put itself into this delicate position. One of the primary reasons for it is the ethical dimension of its foreign policy. It should be recognized that this policy style reflects a new approach and point of view that the world needs. However, we also need to think about what sort of perception Turkey’s approach has created around the world, because this ethical approach does not rely solely on humane considerations; it also recalls Turkey’s Ottoman past, and sends the message that it may claim rights and responsibilities in parts of the eastern Mediterranean that were once territorial waters of the Ottoman state, and in the Middle East, where the Ottoman Empire was the sole ruler for centuries.

This is a natural feeling for Turkey. But it can be viewed as natural and normal only if other nations are entitled to feel the same way and claim the same rights. On the other hand, we should not be unfair to Turkey, which has expended a great deal of effort in the Syrian crisis. Even where sufficient support has not been offered by other nations, Turkey has preserved its ambitious position, and dismissed other, more indirect options.

Turkey’s asset during this whole process has been its soft power, namely its rising appeal to other nations in the areas of economics and culture. However, in the world of nation states, foreign policy dynamics rest on one simple reality: that the precondition for the effectiveness of soft power with respect to other nations depends on the development of these nations in terms of democracy. The functionality of the attraction and appeal of another country is linked to the ability of the people to raise their voices to demand additional rights. In short, Turkey’s ability to promote a new policy style based on its soft power is dependent on the democratic structure of other countries in the region. Otherwise, as has been seen in the Syrian example, Turkey’s soft power is viewed as a direct external intervention, leading to an inescapable state of enmity.

Therefore, it is impossible in the face of countries like Syria not to move to more hawkish policies, and it should be noted that the Syrian side rushes to test Turkey’s hard power. There are two major reasons behind Syria’s courage in doing this. Firstly, Syria believes that the West does not want a war. Aside from the consideration of the fragile structure of the EU, the US does not intend to wage a new war before the presidential election.

At this point we should also note that Turkey gives the impression that it will unilaterally intervene in Syria, or this perception has at least generaated a policy of wait-and-see in the US.

Secondly, Turkey’s soft power is not very influential as the nation has much at stake, due to its fragile economic structure, the Kurdish problem -- which has remained unsolved for many years -- and other major problems.

In recent years, Turkey has held dreams for its future. However, given the homework to be done, it could be said that it needs at least 10 more years to make these dreams come true.