According to the results of the biannual Barometer Survey conducted by the International Investors Association (YASED) among its members, a greater majority of international investors in Turkey expect growth from Turkey more than they expect the global economy to improve. The results show that 47 percent of those surveyed expected Turkey to grow in the next six months, with 40 percent expecting growth to remain stable. Those expecting growth in the global economy, however, were lower at 30 percent, with 60 percent expecting global economic growth to stabilize at current levels. The matter at the forefront of everyone’s minds, however, was domestic political turmoil, as it was the highest-ranked potentially adverse development to affect FDI.
Employment, one of the hot topics both domestically and globally, was also in the spotlight. The survey showed that of the 120 respondents, 34 percent had decreased the number of employees in the previous six months on their payroll, while 22 percent had increased them. When asked about their expectations for the first six months of 2010, 29 percent said they would increase their current number of employees, with 54 percent saying they would keep the number of employees unchanged. Whether this is a reflection of general investor expectations in the national economy is uncertain.
YASED also revealed a new Investors’ Expectation Index (IEI) that combines expectations regarding economic stability, legal framework, taxes, competition and political stability among other indicators to form a single index of investor expectations. The index, for which retrospective calculations have been made and which takes 2002 as its base year, is at 70.01 for the first quarter of 2010, up more than 12 points from a year before. In addition, 29 percent of respondents stated that the effects of the global financial crisis have come to an end, while 56 percent stated that the effects will come to an end by the end of the year.