The answer to “When will Syrian President Bashar al-Assad step down?” was the focus before, but today the focus is on the answer to “what will happen in post-Assad Syria?”
The bomb that was detonated during a meeting in a national security building in Damascus last week was a turning point. Assad not only lost his comrades but he also saw the beginning of his collapse. It was a psychological turning point for the Assad regime. And while Assad forces get weaker, opponents get control over more and more cities. Is it a surprise? No. The Arab Spring may have triggered the wave of change, but this wave was fed by “internal dynamics.” A regime that does not receive the public’s support has no chance of survival. But what kind of a Syria will be established in the post-Assad period? Will the country manage to preserve its unity? Or will it be divided into three different states for the Sunnis, the Alawites and the Kurds?