According to the Global Trends 2030 report, Turkey, along with several other middle powers, will become even more prominent. The European Commission explored the “long-term trends on major policy issues facing the EU” as a pilot project and released the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) report. The report highlights by 2030, there will be a multi-polar world and no country will be able to dominate individually.
On Turkey, the report finds: “Turkey has been a middle power for most of the last two centuries, and its elites and people are confident about the country’s global and regional position. Current trends suggest Turkey will maintain and even bolster its status as a middle power in demographic, economic, territorial and military terms.”
“Turkey is also likely to become a pivotal regional power. Turkish citizens, capital and institutions will continue to integrate with the global economy and society, and ties with the EU and Turkey’s immediate neighbors and other regions will become deeper and denser,” the report continues. Turkey’s role in an even more globalized world will be shaped by its work and interests within international groups such as NATO, G20, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the EU. EU experts, however, express their doubts over Turkey’s full membership to the EU even by 2030. According to the report, “It is difficult to predict whether Turkey will join the EU by 2030 as there are both push and pull factors.”
For Turkey to continue its “career” as a middle power, the report advises Turkey must address its weaknesses -- “unresolved minority issues, energy dependency, an environmentally unsustainable development model and the mismanagement of natural resources, human development shortcomings, and its exposure to potentially devastating seismic activity.”
On the division of Cyprus issue, the report states greater collaboration between Turkey and the EU could improve the situation, but the challenges facing Turkey’s EU membership process could continue in 2030 and, in turn, worsen the matter. The report also finds a Turkish-Armenian reconciliation could lead to the resolution of the conflict, “although this may be difficult to achieve in the coming decade.”