What will happen in 2014 when Erdoğan becomes president?

These days, when the issue is becoming clearer, there are still no heated discussions or debates.

Another reason for the lack of heated debate is that there were no moves on the part of the government to introduce legal arrangements concerning how the president will be elected directly by the public in compliance with the constitutional amendments of 2007.

During these past five years, some argued that because Gül had been elected for a period of seven years, the presidential elections would be held in 2014, while others claimed that since the constitutional reform package contains provisions on decreasing the presidential seven-year tenure to five years has been approved in the referendum after Gül had been elected, he could not serve for a seven-year term and the elections should be held in 2012.

After Prime Minister Erdoğan announced last week the election would be held in 2014, the presidential election became an issue between the ruling party and the opposition. The government is planning to submit the legal arrangements to Parliament in the coming days, albeit a little late.

Spokespersons for the Republican People's Party (CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) have begun to persist in stating that the presidential elections should be held in 2012. Some even claimed the president should step down in order not to create a crisis. Moreover, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu declared that the constitutional amendment of 2007 should be withdrawn and Parliament should continue to elect the president.

Legal experts for both the opposition and the AK Party have developed their own arguments about the issue.

What's interesting is that CHP deputy Süheyl Batum, a professor of constitutional law, opposes Kılıçdaroğlu's arguments and believes that President Gül was elected for a seven-year term. Distancing himself from Gül, Batum said: “Although I believe Gül is the president of the AK Party and not the whole of Turkey, his term of office is seven years because, when Gül was elected president, the presidency was determined by the version of the 1982 Constitution before the 2007 amendments. Thus, he was elected for seven years. He was elected by Parliament for seven years and cannot be elected president for two consecutive terms. Both his nomination and the election processes were governed by Articles 101 and 102 of the Constitution.”

Some opposition party deputies, off the record, voiced criticisms against the CHP administration. One of the most important questions they ask is why have no steps have been taken if they claim the presidential election should be held in 2012.

Noting that the opposition wants to create a division within the AK Party, an AK Party executive stated: “There can be only one explanation for their insistence on a five-year term: the expectation of an intra-party crack stemming from these debates. Supposedly, Prime Mister Erdoğan will want to become president in 2012 and he will confront President Gül. Moreover, [if Erdoğan steps down as prime minister to run for president] there will be a leadership race in the AK Party and thus the government will perform poorly, etc. All of this shows they will not be able to win the next local elections to be held in 2014 if Prime Minister Erdoğan remains leader of the AK Party.”

So, who will be the new AK Party leader if Prime Minister Erdoğan goes to Çankaya (the presidential palace) in 2014?

The impression I got is that the new AK Party chairman after Erdoğan will not be someone who has already been suggested for the position. Erdoğan will choose to nominate an unnamed player as the new prime minister. Upon the request from AK Party executives, I will not announce this name now.

Three broken records

Turkish exporters had aimed to break a record by exceeding pre-2008 global crisis export figures. Before the end of 2011, they reached their target. Now, they aim to continue their success by breaking more records in the future. In fact, achieving the government's target of $500 billion in trade for 2023, the centennial of the republic, depends on this.

The second record Turkey broke was the republic's record for growth in 2011. Competing with China with respect to economic growth, Turkey's economy registered a higher-than-expected growth rate of 8.2 percent during the third quarter of 2011 and ranked second in the world. In the first nine months of 2011, Turkey outpaced China. While Turkey's growth rate was 9.6 percent in the first nine months of 2011, China's economy grew 9.4 percent in the same period.

Although economic growth equates to an increase in both the employment rate and people's income levels, many columnists and TV personalities have voiced criticism. The AK Party's economic experts spoke to Today's Zaman about these criticisms that concern the current account deficit (CAD), purchasing power, interest rates, exchange rates and increasing rates of inflation. One expert said: “This is a world record. In no country other than Turkey can media members criticize the economy despite record-breaking growth and export figures.”

In addition to growth and export records, Turkish media members broke the record for criticism.

Removing the military from Parliament

After the Parliamentary Administrative Organization Law came into force after being published in last week's Official Gazette, the duties of a military unit that had served in Parliament for nearly 100 years ended. The existence of this unit in Parliament was not an innocent symbol. It symbolized the power of military tutelage.

So, does the removal of the military from Parliament equate to the removal of military tutelage?

Former deputies who suggested the removal of the unit from Parliament received harsh criticism from the military, and the opposition gave a concise answer: Absolutely not!

Despite all of the positive developments that have been made towards civilian control of the military, including the arrests of high-ranking generals who had committed crimes against democracy, military tutelage maintains its existence with a reliance on the coup-era Constitution.

Politicians underline that if military tutelage is not defeated completely, it will seek an opportunity to regain its standing and Turkey therefore must not become lax due to its current strong status.

The unit, which was part of the Presidential Guard, had been stationed on parliamentary grounds since 1920 when it was assigned to protect Parliament by Atatürk. It was restructured on Oct. 16, 1920.

Having participated in the War of Independence, the unit took part in battles at Inonu, Sakarya and Dumlupınar between 1921 and 1923, which saw 22 members martyred, including seven military officers and 15 soldiers. The unit was restructured as the Parliamentary Guard Battalion on April 20, 1924 and became the Parliamentary Guard Regiment later on. In 1939, it became a brigade. On May 9, 1940, the unit went to Çatalca and served as the 64th Division. This division was abolished in 1948.

After the division was abolished, the unit started to serve as a squad. In 1953, it became the Regiment of the Presidential Guard. The regiment had 800 staff members who served in Parliament and in national palaces.