Thanks to Israel, Egypt and Turkey are now friends

Israel, recently embroiled in a seemingly insurmountable diplomatic spat with Turkey, is now experiencing a separate crisis with Egypt after killing five Egyptian border guards last month while pursuing what it says were radical Palestinian militants.

Its refusal to apologize for the killing of nine Turkish pro-Palestinian activists on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla and with its new “apology” issue with Egypt, in which it expressed only “regret” over the deaths of the Egyptian border guards, mean Israel is destined to become isolated in the region, according to some analysts.

Israel's isolation will no doubt be secured by the grand alliance Egypt and Turkey are set to form, and following decades of mistrust and cold relations, Turkey and Egypt are now new friends with a common foe -- Israel.

In what could be seen as a strong sign that Egypt's peace treaty with Israel is slowly falling apart, Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf told a Turkish television channel that a peace deal with Israel was not “sacred” and could be changed for the benefit of peace or the region.

His comments were the strongest yet by the new government, which took over after Mubarak was overthrown in February.

“The Camp David agreement is not a sacred thing and is always open to discussion with what would benefit the region and the case of fair peace … and we could make a change if needed,” he said in the interview.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan started what has become known as his “Arab Spring tour” on Monday and made his first stop in Cairo, which is undergoing a transition process and recovering from political and economic fallout of the revolution that ended the 32-year-rule of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

Asked by an Egyptian journalist during a press conference in Cairo if the strategic content of Egyptian-Turkish relations is determined by a common threat the two countries are feeling the heat of, Erdoğan said strategic ties between Egypt and Turkey are being prepared independent of Israel. But it is no secret that Turkey and Egypt have never been this close to each other before and that the common threat from Israel to both countries definitely has some effect on this rapprochement.

Observers argue that Erdoğan aims to strengthen Turkey's influence and form an alliance between the two countries with the aim of increasing Israel's isolation in the region.

Veysel Ayhan, an expert from the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), told Sunday's Zaman in an interview that unveiled plans to increase investment and establish a High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council between the two nations constitute a threat to Israel. The alleged joint military drill Turkey and Egypt are expected to hold in the near future, signed military pacts and forming alliance show the fading influence of Israel in the Middle East. “The isolation of Israel is not the goal, it is a result,” the expert added.

Egyptians are increasingly looking at Turkey for political and economic support as the Arab nation attempts to rebuild the country following the chaotic collapse of Mubarak's regime. Erdoğan is undoubtedly popular in Egypt and received an enthusiastic welcome at Cairo International Airport when tens of thousands greeting him on Monday night. The Turkish prime minister was accompanied by 280 Turkish businessmen and they were able to secure $853 million in business deals with their Egyptian counterparts during a two-day Egyptian-Turkish business forum.

In the past two years, Turkey's foreign policy has won many accolades among Turkish businessmen for inking visa exemption deals, establishing free trade zones and strategic cooperation councils that could be an economic mechanism in boosting trade volume and cultivating strong political relations with neighboring Muslim countries. Egypt was the only country with which Turkey did not lift visas requirements, establish cooperation councils or build political ties.

During Erdoğan's visit, 11 agreements were signed and Erdoğan said it is his “wish” that the two countries would abolish visa requirements -- the first official sign of political will from the Turkish side to that end.

Hüseyin Bağcı, a professor of international relations at Middle East Technical University (ODTÜ), said Turkey's diplomatic and economic engagement with Egypt along with a series of agreements the two countries signed as part of normalizing relations will most probably put Israel out of the game and isolate it further. Egypt and Turkey will voice aloud their disapproval of Israel's handling of the Palestinian issue, which brought the two Muslim countries closer in the first place. He also added that if the Palestinians' bid for statehood is successful, unconditional American support for Israel may come to an end.

The prime minister's visit to Cairo comes days after Turkey imposed a series of punitive measures, including expelling the Israeli ambassador, suspending defense trade agreements and threatening to deploy Turkish gunboats and frigates to patrol the eastern Mediterranean -- following a UN report on the Mavi Marmara, which called the May 31, 2010 Israeli raid “excessive and unreasonable,” but also claimed that due to Israel's security concerns its blockade of Gaza is legal.

In contrast, David Phillips from Columbia University dismissed the idea that Turkey's rapprochement with Egypt has anything to do with Israel and its isolation. He evaluated Turkey's Israel demarche as Turkey's desire to spread its influence in the region. Unlike some experts claiming that Turkey and Egypt have started to form an alliance in a bid to squeeze Israel, Phillips said the current Egyptian government stands by its pact with Israel and has not indicated any intention to abrogate current treaty obligations.

However, this situation may change, he said, after Egypt promulgates its constitution and holds elections. “But it is too soon to tell,” Phillips added.

In Cairo last week, protesters angered by the killing of five Egyptian police officers in Egypt's Sinai region in July stormed the Israeli Embassy and tore down the embassy's security wall -- which activists say provoked them to attack the embassy. Israel's ambassador, Yitzhak Levanon, his family and other embassy staff were evacuated immediately and flown back to Israel.

An Israeli expert also speculated along the same lines and claimed that the Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement is not really connected to relations with Israel. Shlomo Brom, an expert from the Institute for National Security Studies based in Israel, however, said Erdoğan is encouraging what he claimed was “the misperception” that Egypt and Turkey have become friends because of the common Israeli threat as Erdoğan is utilizing the rapprochement in his campaign against Israel.

Brom confirmed that the two states oppose Israeli policy vis-à-vis the Palestinians and may cooperate in acting against these policies.