Where does Christofias stand in Cyprus?
by Mehmet Hasgüler & Niko Stelya*

AKEL won the election because it stood against a resolution spelled out in the said plan, but AKEL also promised a unified Cyprus, as well as a Cyprus for the Greeks that promotes social justice and peace with its neighbors. But it appears none of these has happened.

Based on recent developments, it could be argued that the promises made by Christofias and AKEL have not been fulfilled. Cyprus has failed to reconcile with its region, to attain social justice and strike a peace deal over the decade AKEL has been in power. The overall situation was exacerbated by the arrival of an economic crisis that proved to be influential and destructive.

An explosion at the Mari military base in Greek Cyprus in July added a new dimension to the crisis that AKEL and Christofias are dealing with. The opposition, which uses a rightist and nationalist discourse, has become more influential and, as a result, thousands of people took to the streets in protest of the government. For a nation struggling with an economic crisis, 13 people dying for nothing was the straw that broke the camel's back. Worse, Greek Cypriots also had to deal with power outages in the middle of summer, peak tourism season. The bill that this created further worsened the financial crisis in the country.

In the aftermath of the disaster at the Mari military base, the vast majority of Greek Cypriots asked for Christofias' immediate resignation. Coincidentally, similar protests are being held in Israel, where people are eager to demonstrate their opposition to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his policies; therefore, a conclusion could be drawn to stress that the erosion in the governmental legitimacy both administrations are experiencing holds some similarities.

From a populist-nationalist perspective, the dominant political tendency in the Greek part of Cyprus, it could be said that Christofias gave the opposition everything it needed on a silver platter. The DISI simply wait for the decline of AKEL; DISI's leadership did not even have to work hard towards AKEL's decline.

Christofias is facing a fate similar to the one that the Republican Turkish Party (CTP) and Talat had to deal with a few years ago when they were met with popular protests in the northern part of the island.

At a time when populism was accompanied by nationalism, anti-socialism and sometimes racism, Christofias decided to stay in power. His close confidants are sure that after his decision to part ways with the Democratic Party (DIKO), which seeks to become influential by relying on a chauvinist discourse, Christofias could have renewed his presence in politics with a new initiative. This initiative turned out to be oil and natural gas exploration around Cyprus, which has been eagerly promoted by Nicosia. In this way, the government, which received blow after blow in domestic politics, opted to make an ambitious move with diplomatic and economic dimensions.

Shuttle diplomacy

To this end, a shuttle diplomacy has started between Nicosia and Tel Aviv and Western capitals and, behind the curtains, cooperation was perpetuated with Athens, as well. Diplomatic efforts by Erato Markulis, who recently assumed the seat of foreign minister, took Cyprus to initiate oil exploration on the island. Ankara's harsh stance also contributed to Nicosia's goals. The discourse of promoting the interests of small Cyprus against big power Turkey has been used extensively by the government to win over the international community.

There are four major reasons for Nicosia to escalate tension in East Mediterranean:

1- Turkey's rise in the Middle East has caused the Greek leadership to revise their policies on the region. Damascus and Tehran's close contact with Ankara in particular had raised a question mark for Greeks, leading them to think “despite our stance on Palestine, Arabs and the Persians are turning their backs on us.”

During this period, Nicosia took Tel Aviv's pulse and gave some thought to possible cooperation. The worsening relations between Turkey and Israel in the aftermath of the Mavi Marmara incident gave them the opportunity they were seeking: the opportunity to cooperate on oil and natural gas exploration.

2- The Cyprus negotiations, which stalled late in Talat's term and early in Derviş Eroğlu's, pushed Greek politicians into a state raised pessimism regarding the island. The overall situation is further complicated by misinformation and the rumors that negotiations would stop completely if Eroğlu came to power. In this sense, Talat's statements on Eroğlu to the effect that negotiations would collapse if the latter came into power were something Christofias desperately needed during the election campaign. The whole situation became even more interesting, considering that the Greek politicians, who viewed the Turkish state a threat, interpreted the economic package agreement between Turkey and the Turkish leaders on the island as Turkey's eagerness to increase its influence. These concerns were presented as pretexts to justify their discourse suggesting that the negotiations were actually collapsing.

3- As noted above, for the Greek government struggling with thorny problems in domestic politics, oil explorations are considered a final trump card.

4- Nicosia is particularly relieved that the oil exploration works will be performed by an American company. Open to discussion; however, is how comfortable a company, even if American, can enter into this debate.

The still unshaped Arab Spring, Iran's ambitions in the Middle East, the rising tension between Turkey and Israel, instability in Iran and the uncertainty in Egypt all mean instability and further tension in the east Mediterranean. In the end, the developments in the region may take Turkey and Israel to a bilateral confrontation in the region. To this end, the independence of Palestine could be considered at the new UN General Assembly.

From this perspective, the Christofias-Netanyahu bloc undermines their legitimacy in the region, as well as in their countries, while Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's decisive stance polishes his and Turkey's image in the region and in the world. The traditional sentiments held by the Greeks and Greek Cypriots over the Palestinian issue are not consistent with the current policies of their governments. It could be argued that rapprochement between Israel and South Cyprus could be undermined in the near future.

Going back to Cyprus, even the slightest tension in the Green Line -- the ceasefire line that divides the island into two -- or the oil-natural gas exploration area could lead to a huge conflict in the region. The benefits of such a tense environment and period for the people of the island and Turkey will be limited.

Aternatives for a resolution

If we do not want additional tension in the region, we need to reconsider alternatives for a resolution to the Cyprus issue. It should be noted that even a collapse in negotiations should not mean that the negotiation table should be abandoned. Because the Greek Cypriots and Turks will still keep living together even if negotiations collapse, how the legacy of the 1959-1960 agreements -- when Cyprus became a bi-communal Republic where Greek and Turkish Cypriot constituent communities would share power guaranteed by the UK, Turkey and Greece -- will be shared will eventually become a matter of discussion.

At this point, there are many steps that both parties in Cyprus, as well as Athens and Ankara, should take. Even though some would not want to see and believe it, there is a state of crisis in Cyprus and it is fairly important that this crisis be administered and supervised properly. We have to focus on communication, as well as the political and economic dimensions of the issue for better and more effective control of this crisis before it turns into a conflict. Otherwise, there could be a risk of partial instability for Turkey, as well as Cyprus. In that case, it would become a matter of time that the social upheaval in Athens could turn into a Greek Spring or uprising.

*Associate Professor Dr. Mehmet Hasgüler is an instructor at the European University of Lefk .& Dr. Niko Stelya is an editor on Turkey-Cyprus-Northern Cyprus with Kathimerini Newspaper.