Balanced multipolarity or back to realpolitik in post-Soviet territory?
by Elkhan Nuriyev*

Western policymakers and academics often raise an interesting yet sensitive question: Can the territory develop into a distinct cooperative region of equal nations, or will many of its diverse states remain fated to be the “clients” of great powers?

Obviously, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is now of the greatest strategic importance in the region for many reasons including the post-cold war independence of newly aspiring democracies, the conflict zones, energy resources in the Caucasus and Central Asia and pipeline politics in the Black Sea-Caspian basin. Also the CIS comprises a huge geographic area wherein Russia, the most powerful actor, continues to see the post-Soviet neighborhood as a zone of privileged interest. Although the US became the only superpower at a global level after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the world is now moving from unipolar to multipolar bases of power. The post-Soviet security order is therefore often described as being characterized by “balanced multipolarity,” where the principal powers involved in maintaining the balance include Russia, the EU and the US. Compared to unbalanced multipolarity where one state has greater power than the others, balanced multipolarity is more stable because no single power is strong enough to become a regional hegemon.

Paradoxically, Russia’s main Western geopolitical competitors (the US and the EU) are significantly weakened and there is no serious external threat to Moscow that could prove to be a more effective international player and make a bid for regional hegemony in the former Soviet zone. The Western democracies are not quite as unified as they were during the cold war. There are many divisions within the EU, especially between those members who want to be on a political bandwagon with the US and those who do not. NATO also has disagreements among its members especially in regard to Russia’s approach to European affairs.

Meanwhile, both Turkey and Iran are pursuing their own interests in the post-Soviet Southern Tier with more success. The two countries have a growing regional interdependence with Russia due to their negative experiences with Western policies. Ankara and Tehran are becoming closer with Moscow and considering the development of their own neighborhood. Turkey and Iran are balancing themselves between East and West and are seen as individual balancers in this region. This scenario would make it reasonable to conclude that the post-Soviet area is indeed in a condition of balanced multipolarity.

However, this balance remains fragile and could easily collapse, given that some post-Soviet countries are afraid that neither the EU nor the US would support them if Russia makes a further bid for hegemony. A recent discussion with a Brussels-based expert revealed that the EU has been paralyzed by a lack of solidarity and sound leadership. During a private conversation in Washington, D.C, a US administration adviser emphasized that it was high time for the EU to take responsibility for its own back yard. This would seem to prove that the Obama administration is not quite as focused on the EU’s eastern periphery and particularly the wider Black Sea-Caspian basin as was believed. For now the major question hinges on whether America will maintain its power maximization policy for long into the future. Washington could be more actively engaged in post-Soviet affairs in order to retain influence, prevent the emergence of a rival and minimize balancing instincts. The EU and the US both are most effective when they do not compete against one another but cooperate in tandem in the former Soviet territory.

Still, the US and the EU are able to balance Russian influence, especially in the economic, military and security spheres. The August 2008 Georgian-Russian war and the subsequent developments in the CIS countries have showed that Russia is strong enough to act as a regional hegemon. Given that the post-Soviet area is far more unstable, balanced multipolarity can develop into unbalanced multipolarity, which is particularly dangerous due to the lack of regional security. The situation of balanced multipolarity will remain in place if the principal powers will do their utmost to ameliorate geopolitical conditions in the CIS territory. The main challenge facing the post-Soviet nations in the coming years will be to resolve territorial conflicts and move toward closer integration. Cooperation in meeting this major challenge must have national, regional and broader international dimensions. A long-term security and peace cannot be provided through forging alliances with one regional power or the other, but rather through an integrated, coordinated and pragmatic approach that recognizes the shared interests of the newly independent states, Russia, the US and the EU.