Playing chicken with Turkey: Bet on Turkey to offset the Persian power play
by James Lewis*

Turkey has opened its southern border to Syrian refugees and is actively treating the wounded. The Turkish government is hosting the exiled leadership and dissident activists on the ground protesting in Syria.

The emergence of Turkey can help achieve regional policy goals for peace and economic growth and will offset the rising influence of Iran and radicalism in the region.

Egypt, America’s go-to guy for the region, is facing rumors of radicalization in the lead-up to its elections. The only other power players in the region are Iran, which fails to recognize the legitimacy of Israel, and Saudi Arabia, which has enough concerns with Yemen, Iraq and global oil prices. With the uncertainty of Egypt, Turkey is posed to grow in power and influence and support regional security.

Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu have plans to grow the diplomatic and economic force of Turkey. Turkish growth will offset the influence of Iran, which has begun to use its intelligence services to interact with the revolutionary base and is worrying analysts that it is constructing a more radical region.

Turkey had negotiated port cease-fires in Libya, and in March Ambassador Levent Şahinkaya was critical in securing the release of New York Times Beirut Bureau Chief Anthony Shadid and his colleagues Stephen Farrell, Tyler Hicks and Lynsey Addario. Selçuk Ünal, a Foreign Ministry spokesman cited “historic ties with Libya going back centuries” as the reason for Turkey’s involvement.

Turkey has coordinated indirect talks between Israel and Syria and Syria and Iraq, and played a key role in the reconciliation deal between Fatah and Hamas. Earlier this year, Turkey facilitated discussion with Iran by hosting nuclear talks.

Turkey is a secular voice, especially when compared to Khomeini’s Iran. Whereas Turkey joins the global community functioning as a diplomatic and cultural ambassador, Iran intentionally infuriates other leaders.

Turkey is not just the quintessential diplomat but also an economic powerhouse; it is the fastest growing economy in Europe. New satellite images show İstanbul is a megacity of nearly 15 million inhabitants covering 700 square miles. İstanbul sits atop the Bosporus, a key trade route. Erdoğan says 139 million tons of oil, 4 million tons of liquefied petroleum gas and 3 million tons of chemicals pass through the waterway annually. Erdoğan has drafted plans to dig an artificial channel, called Kanal İstanbul; he has said it will be a project of such immense size that the Panama and Suez canals will pale in comparison.

Taking on a leadership role

With economic and diplomatic power, Turkey will take a leadership role if it can position itself to mediate the Israel-Palestinian peace process.

American President Barack Obama formalized US opinion for a two-state solution in Israel to achieve this, but he is going to need a strong regional ally.

In 1949 Turkey was the first majority Islamic country to recognize Israel. Turkey is perfectly positioned to mediate peace, having helped Hamas and Fatah to reconcile. Turkish diplomats can mediate the process and ease Knesset fears over the Hamas/Fatah alliance.

With Turkey’s application to the European Union continuously rejected and Nicolas Sarkozy’s Union for the Mediterranean still playing second fiddle, Turkey is perfectly positioned to focus on a region that could benefit from its immediate attention and influence. It can fill Egypt’s void and counterbalance Iran. Turkey has already loosened visa restrictions and suggested a regional Schengen to its Middle East neighbors, and bilateral trade increases between Turkey and Lebanon have yielded millions in increased activity.

Economic and cultural leadership can only go so far; true leadership will be denoted by success in the peace process. Turkey’s emergence should be welcomed by the rest of the world; it is the only leader with the clout to advocate for both Israeli security and Palestinian statehood.