The collapsing ivory towers of the Middle East
by Gamze Coşkun*

In this respect, it would not be inappropriate to depict most of the Middle Eastern leaders as people living in their ivory towers, unaware of or disregarding social realities. People stuck between ill-structured economies (rentier capitalism) and very limited freedom of expression have been ruled by one dictator for decades. However, since the beginning of the new year, the ivory towers of these leaders have been disturbed or have even collapsed.

As people overcame the public inability to react against authority, there have been explosions of social unrest throughout many countries in the region. The domino effect, discussed since the beginning of the incidents, became inevitable in the area. People are now aware of their unnecessary fear of the regimes and are determined to continue their struggle for political change and dignity by pushing the limits. But this fight is expected to take on various forms and have different consequences in different countries, despite macro-level commonalities, because of their micro-level diversity. In this regard, the situation could become more complicated in countries following Tunisia and Egypt.

A process involving more external intervention

The crowds that gathered in squares with the aim of preserving their freedom and dignity are being closely followed by external actors such as the US, Europe, Israel and Iran. In this chaotic environment, in contrast to the relatively homogenous and developed structure of Tunisia and Egypt, other countries, with much ethnic, denominational and even tribal diversity, are more open to the manipulation of external powers. This portrait becomes much clearer when the characteristics of the countries affected by these movements are taken into consideration.

In Saudi Arabia, Oman, Yemen and Libya, tribalism constitutes an important part of social and political life. Without taking these dynamics into account, it is almost impossible to maintain control of the administration. In addition to countries where tribalism plays a crucial role, states that have problems regarding denominational differences may not be able to escape these movements and external intervention in the near future, either. Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain are at the top of this list. Iraq, which includes various ethnicities, has a 60-65 percent Shiite and 32-37 percent Sunni population. Yemen also has witnessed a long-lasting conflict between Shiites and Sunnis, the consequence of the 55 percent Sunni population’s dominance in all aspects of the administration. In Bahrain, on the other hand, the 30-40 percent Sunnis ruling the country with a Shiite majority has been the driving force behind the social unrest.

Under these circumstances, even though there have been uprisings, it is not hard to predict that Iran would like to benefit from this disturbance, particularly by abusing denominational diversity. From its statements on “the Middle East’s revolutions,” Iran’s ambitions in the region are very easily understood. Furthermore, one of Iran’s main strategic aims is being the dominant power in the Persian Gulf, revealing the possibility that it may try to take an active role by using the uncertain situation to exert its influence in the region and contest other external powers.

Furthermore, it is also significantly important that strategically important countries are being affected by these movements. Iraq, the world’s 12th biggest oil producer with the fourth largest proven reserves, is at the top of the countries in which both the US and Iran would like to have influence. Libya has the biggest oil reserves on the African continent with 46.6 billion barrels of oil. Algeria is Africa’s third with its 12.2 billion barrels in proven oil reserves, as well as being the world’s eighth in natural gas, with reserves of 4.5 trillion cubic meters. Without a doubt, these facts mean a lot in an international system based on the political understanding of “a drop of oil is more valuable than a drop of blood.”

Although its small amount of oil is expected to be depleted in 15 to 20 years, because of its geostrategic importance, it is not possible to put Yemen on the back burner. In this respect, the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, through which 3.2 million barrels of oil are carried per day, constitutes a strategic link between the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. In the same way, Bahrain, which hosts the US 5th Fleet responsible for naval forces in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea and the coast off of East Africa, is another important country. That is to say, Bahrain is the safety fence for the US against Iran’s activities in the Persian Gulf.

At the gathering point of diverse dynamics in the Middle Eastern and North African region, a difficult process of challenging the system and shaking the leaders’ ivory towers is occurring. From now on, more regional and international actors will interfere with the people’s revolt against existing regional political systems due to the reasons listed above. While something new is being established in place of the collapsed ivory towers, the external powers, and particularly the US, Europe, Israel and Iran, will not miss the opportunity to take part in this process of establishment. It seems that in the upcoming days this region on the verge of renewal will witness a power struggle between external powers, on top of problems within itself.

*Gamze Coşkun is a researcher at the USAK Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies.