Turkey seeks stability in Lebanon amid Hariri probe

People of Beirut greeted the visiting Turkish prime minister warmly on Wednesday as the Lebanese capital's streets were adorned with Turkish flags and posters of Erdoğan reading “Hoşgeldin” (welcome in Turkish).

Erdoğan's visit came only a month after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a bold show of strength in Lebanon last month, vowing before thousands of Hezbullah supporters that US and Israeli power in the Middle East will soon be eclipsed. The visit by Ahmadinejad, welcomed by crowds of cheering Shiites, underscored the eroding position of pro-Western factions in Lebanon.

Oytun Orhan, an expert on Lebanon and a resident researcher at the Middle East Strategic Research Center (ORSAM), told Sunday's Zaman that it is not correct to compare Erdoğan's Lebanon visit with Ahmadinejad's recent trip to the country. Orhan said Turkey's position is very distinct from Syrian, Iranian and Saudi Arabian positions in Lebanon and that Turkey embraces all sects and groups in the country.

According to the expert, all these countries are attempting to play a role in Lebanon by supporting different sects, adding that Iran explicitly supports Hezbullah, Saudi Arabia supports Sunnis and Syria seems to support Hezbullah but in fact has a slightly different pragmatic position from that of Iran. Orhan said these countries are sources of instability in the country, but that Turkey keeps an equal distance from all sects in Lebanon. “Turkey's interest here is Lebanon's stability,” he noted.

Both the US and Israel have slammed Ahmadinejad's trip to Lebanon, accusing him of destabilizing the region.

Speaking about Turkey's capacity to prevent any potential conflicts in Lebanon, Orhan said Turkey has serious capability, and political experience inherited from its Ottoman past and that it is a regional power that can serve as a deterrent.

Turkish diplomatic sources said Turkey was concerned that the UN-backed tribunal's investigation into the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri could spark a government crisis in Lebanon, a development that could have regional repercussions. Turkey is in touch with all Lebanese groups, telling them that ensuring the stability of the government is essential, a Turkish official told Sunday's Zaman. The official emphasized that Turkey was respectful of the legal process and that its diplomatic efforts did not in any way mean interference in the tribunal's investigation.

When visiting Lebanon, Erdoğan expressed Turkey's support for a stable Lebanese government.

Western diplomats and Lebanese political sources say expected indictments against members of the Shiite guerrilla group Hezbullah in the 2005 killing of Hariri could be issued by the end of this year or in early 2011. The group, part of a fragile national unity government, denies involvement in the Hariri bombing and Hezbullah leader Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah has said he will not allow the arrest of any members. He has called on Saad Hariri to repudiate the tribunal.

At Lebanon's request, the UN Security Council approved setting up the tribunal in 2007, but it has yet to indict anyone over the killing. Some Lebanese politicians have warned of a possible relapse into violence when the indictments are issued.

Orhan also said the timing of Erdoğan's visit is meaningful, indicating that Turkey will never give any leeway for civil strife in the country. The analyst said an increase in instability is expected, adding that Turkey's role is in line with American interests in the country, which is stability.

Noting that Erdoğan made a speech in a predominantly Sunni village, assailing Israel and calling the Jewish state to apologize will have some repercussions with respect to Turkish-Israeli relations, he added that this is just another dimension of its relations with the West.

Hüsnü Mahalli, a columnist with the Akşam daily, said it is not accurate to describe Erdoğan's visit as an attempt to offset the balance against Iran's proxy organization, Hezbullah, and that Turkey's involvement in the process in Lebanon is not new. Noting that Turkey has engaged in alleviating tensions in the country since 2005, Mahalli said Turkey has mediated among disputing parties every time tensions arose.

Recalling three-way meetings between Saudi Arabia, Syria and Lebanon, Mahalli said Turkey was behind all this shuttle diplomacy, adding that Turkey has made numerous diplomatic overtures to bring Syria, which was heavily criticized by the West for having an alleged role in assassinating Hariri, and Lebanon together.