Resuming proximity talks with Syria depends on Israel’s position

Peace talks ground to a halt in December 2008 after former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert ordered an offensive on Gaza. The decision to raid Gaza came right after Olmert held talks with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and on the eve of the start of direct peace talks between Syria and Israel. Erdoğan felt personally insulted. In the last meeting between Olmert and Erdoğan, the Turkish leader called Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and relayed messages to and from Olmert. But after Operation Cast Lead began in December 2008 and negotiations with Syria were frozen, Erdoğan said Olmert had stabbed him in the back. France has since, though without any results, offered many times to restart the peace talks.

Talks are aimed at a peace agreement between Israel and Syria that includes an unconditional withdrawal of Israeli troops to the pre-1967 border in the Golan Heights and the establishment of diplomatic ties.

Al-Moallem sent signals to both France and the US regarding the mediation of the conflict, saying that any effort to resume peace talks will consist of helping Turkish mediation.

In order to estimate if Israel will be ready to allow Turkish mediation for its silent and frozen but protracted dispute with Syria in the near future, it is necessary to look back at Turkish mediation in 2008, when between May and December Turkey made great efforts to bring Arab and Jewish diplomats together for direct talks in just half a year. Turkey’s virtuoso diplomacy amazed both sides, despite growing and excellent relations between Syria and Turkey. In this vein, Syria repeatedly considers Turkey the most relevant actor in this dispute and sees the country as the only one that could best serve the interests of the Arab country while mediating.

Israel also welcomed Turkey’s role in proximity talks in 2008 and hailed Turkey’s mediation as “honest” even at a time when Turkish-Israeli relations were experiencing a huge diplomatic crisis. In February the Israeli Haaretz daily quoted Olmert, prime minister during the peace talks under Turkish mediation, as saying that Turkey acted with responsibility and fairness in its role as a mediator in the indirect peace negotiations between Israel and Syria. During Olmert’s tenure, Turkey mediated five rounds of talks between Israeli and Syrian officials. “We can reach an understanding with the Syrians which would change the map in the Middle East. A decision on this issue must be made. It’s too easy being angry at Erdoğan, but it would be wise to reconcile with him. He is a fair mediator. We need negotiations with Turkish mediation,” Olmert had reportedly said.

Israel needs to alter its position

Although the current Israeli government claims that Turkey has lost its neutral position to be eligible to mediate the dispute, it seems there is still room to resume talks if the Israeli government decides to reconcile with the Turkish government or if there is a change in Israeli government.

Joshua Walker, a Transatlantic Academy fellow, said he thinks that until Turkey and Israel restore trust and full diplomatic relations, there is very little hope of Turkey being able to mediate in the conflict.

Diplomats from both Israel and Turkey attempted to revamp ties between the two countries following each crisis in the past year, but the latest crisis, in which Israel attacked an international aid vessel on May 31 and killed one American and eight Turkish nationals, almost severed all ties between the two countries. Despite several national and international inquiries that were launched into the raid, no rulings could push Israel to step back, acknowledge its fault and apologize -- Turkey’s precondition to restoring ties. Turkey recalled its ambassador for consultations even before the raid and never sent him back.

In early February of this year, like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman urged Syria to abandon its dreams of recovering the Israeli-held Golan Heights. “We must make Syria recognize that just as it relinquished its dream of a greater Syria that controls Lebanon, it will have to relinquish its ultimate demand regarding the Golan Heights,” Lieberman reportedly claimed.

A senior US administration official declined to comment on the US position on the issue and it was not immediately possible to learn what the existing atmosphere in the administration is. But it is not yet clear if the US views Turkey as a necessary player to mediate the conflict.

Walker said he thinks the US will follow Israel’s lead on this, adding that there is also general skepticism in Washington about Turkey’s intentions in the area. The timing for these attempts is therefore off from many different angles.

Similarly, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, said in her response on Thursday to a parliamentary question by a Greek member of the European Parliament that Turkey had recently started to become more assertive in its foreign policy and that this new approach presents a number of potential assets which could turn to the benefit of the EU in a number of areas. Among these are overall relations with the Muslim world; dialogue with a number of key actors in the Middle East; the military capacity for security and peace-making; energy policy; a strong, large and fast-growing market; industrial competitiveness; and innovative capabilities.

Ashton, however, said the EU is of the opinion that it would benefit Turkey and the entire region if Turkey and Israel could return to good relations as soon as possible.