[NEWS ANALYSIS] CHP already concentrating on post-referendum day

At the Antalya rally, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu made a hesitant speech while Baykal delivered what was probably the shortest speech of his political career. The CHP is now making its preparations for the “day-after,” or Sept. 13. Regardless of a “yes” or “no” coming out of the ballot boxes on Sunday, the CHP will be concentrating once again on internal conflicts that were suspended due to the approaching referendum.

Antalya is a fortress city for the CHP, but surprisingly, the interest shown in Kılıçdaroğlu was not great, despite an announcement prior to the rally that Baykal would also participate.

Antalya residents approved of the meeting of Kılıçdaroğlu and Baykal for the first time after the change in leadership, and they mostly appreciate the two leaders appearing together. But the leaders seemed hesitant to raise clasped hands into the air.

For Baykal, who is still making plans to return to leadership, the message of the Antalya rally is huge. His speech lasted three minutes and 40 seconds, but he still treats this rally as an important stage in the struggle he has yet to wage. He also responded to criticism that he refrained from announcing that he would vote “no” in the referendum to undermine Kılıçdaroğlu’s success, saying, “I came here today to appeal to you to vote against the referendum. Every ‘no’ vote you cast will be remembered as a badge of honor.”

With this statement, Baykal saves himself from being blamed for a potential defeat on Sept. 13. However, many look for a deeper meaning behind Baykal’s silence during the referendum campaign only to announce his stance a few days ahead of the national vote. Some believe his participating in the Antalya rally was to respond to criticism that he wasn’t supportive of Kılıçdaroğlu, because he knew that a “yes” will come out of the referendum. The same people say if a “no” vote comes out of the referendum, this would drown all of Baykal’s hopes of coming back to the party leadership.

In fact, there is no deep enmity or hostility between Baykal and Kılıçdaroğlu. By joining the rally in Antalya, Baykal showed that he sees the party’s secretary-general and kingmaker, Önder Sav, as the person who dethroned him. Meanwhile, Sav made an effort to distance himself from the Kılıçdaroğlu-Baykal duo as they greeted the crowd holding hands.

Four deputies, including Yılmaz Ateş, who are known for being close to Baykal flew to Antalya with him. Kılıçdaroğlu flew with people who supported his leadership before he was finally voted in as party leader. The two groups did not spend a second together after greeting the audience at the rally, testimony to an underlying bitterness.

It is more than certain that Kılıçdaroğlu’s election livened up the CHP. However, this does not mean that the masses will be following the party after this point. The difference is in traditional CHP voters who had been distanced from the CHP under Baykal. Now they are eyeing their party differently, and trying to join every activity or organization that it holds.

It appears that Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership will also bring back votes temporarily lent to the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in the July 22, 2007, election. However, many of the MHP votes in Antalya appear to be gravitating toward the AK Party in the referendum process, which indicate that the MHP might be in deep trouble in next year’s general elections.

Because of the tendencies of traditional MHP voters, even in Antalya -- known as the CHP’s fortress -- there is no guarantee that a “no” will come out of the ballot. CHP optimists expect to see “no” votes reach 60 percent in Antalya, but even they believe that the overall national vote will be “yes.” However, more objective analyses indicate that “yes” and “no” votes are going head to head in the city.

Kılıçdaroğlu did not mention a word about the content of the package. His speech here, just like his speeches in other locations, was meant to convince the voters that whatever the AK Party does cannot possibly be “good.”