Sept. 13 could be an earthquake for anti-reform political parties

The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has suffered the most losses of all the parties in the “no” front. The gap between the party administration and its organization has led to the formation of a strong force in the party that is opposed to the Devlet Bahçeli-led administration. Since the 2007 elections Bahçeli has withstood criticism for bringing the MHP closer in line with the Republican People's Party (CHP). Should “no” votes fail to prevail on election day, he will be subject to even heavier criticism because his party will likely become part of a coalition with the CHP.

Even if a change in leadership for the MHP seems like a long shot, it seems unlikely that many names in the CHP organization accused of pulling Bahçeli to that line, like Oktay Vural, will withstand all the criticism.

The waves of resignations are continuing without pause in the CHP, Democrat Party (DP) and Democratic Left Party (DSP). If the parties do not get what they want on Sept. 13, then it is certain that great inner turmoil will ensue. The leader in the toughest spot would be CHP head Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. If Kılıçdaroğlu is unable to get the result he seeks from the referendum, then he will come face-to-face with the Baykal threat. Baykal sees CHP Secretary-General Önder Sav and some of his associates as responsible for the tape scandal that brought about his political downfall and is awaiting the referendum result to stage a return to politics. In order to avoid being the person to undermine Kılıçdaroğlu, Baykal has opted for a wait-and-see tactic along with 33 deputies and is watching from the sidelines -- which is why he appeared alongside Kılıçdaroğlu when the latter showed up for a party rally in the former’s home province of Antalya. In this case, if a heavy loss is suffered by the “no” camp in the referendum, Baykal will have been saved from being the one who tripped Kılıçdaroğlu up. If the “no” votes win, then Baykal’s dreams of returning to leadership will be largely finished.

If the yeas have it in the referendum, then the DP leads the list of parties that are definitely in for a change in leadership. The alarm bells have long been ringing for Hüsamettin Cindoruk, to whom the party chairmanship has been entrusted until the party can find a youthful candidate for leadership; Sept. 13, the day after the referendum, could turn into the date for a coup within that party.

It seems certain that Cindoruk, who has serious differences of opinion when it comes to former Prime Minister Mesut Yılmaz and his supporters, will not survive in his post if the yeas have it.

Following Kılıçdaroğlu’s ascension to the CHP leadership and the addition of a new party formed by Rahşan Ecevit, DSP head Masum Türker has his work cut out for him on Sept. 13. Even if he manages to keep his post, Türker will be unable to control the erosion within his party, though he might be saved by his reluctant participation in the “no” camp.

Despite the resignations in the party bases of the no-camp CHP, MHP, DSP and DP, the lack of any such loss in the yeasayer Justice and Development Party (AK Party), Felicity Party (SP) and Grand Unity Party (BBP) have made the Sept. 12 referendum even more meaningful. If these parties don’t see the result the AK Party wants from the vote, it is certain that they will receive the biggest thrashing in history. The AK Party would have to lay every option out on the table, including early elections, but if the referendum measure passes, then it will be able to benefit from all the bounties of the “yes” cake.

As for the SP, there is no division in views on the yes versus no topic. But it seems that the friction between Numan Kurtuluş and Necmettin Erbakan that started at the party’s congress ahead of the referendum may be pregnant with post-referendum developments. And as for the BBP, it seems that it will be the only party unaffected by the referendum result.

MHP base slipping

The ultranationalist MHP joined the “no” camp instead of taking into account its voters’ preferences with regard to the vote; consequently, in the last month it has been the party to suffer the most losses because supporters favor the referendum. The resignations from the party began when it adopted the same stance as the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), and gained speed when the Idealists who were victims of the Sept. 12, 1980 military coup revolted. Old Idealists who suffered torture at the hands of that coup administration flat-out began challenging the MHP administration. And the announcement by some personalities -- including Ramiz Ongun, who is a candidate for the MHP’s leadership -- that they would be voting yes in the referendum left the MHP administration in a rather tough spot. Most recently, 40 members of the MHP’s founding committee submitted their resignations and criticized the Bahçeli administration in sharp language.

With only a few days until the referendum, the MHP’s losses have totaled 250. The fact that most of these are mayors and provincial and district MHP chiefs is enough to convey the gravity of what is going on within that party. And the loss in voters supporting the MHP is continuing.

The wave of resignations within the CHP began with the resignation of a party member who is also a parliamentary deputy. CHP Ankara deputy Eşref Erdem announced his resignation and explained that he could see no sense in voting no in the referendum. Resignations from within the CHP ranks in the East and Southeast led to a wave of resignations in the party’s voters there -- the CHP had difficulty gaining a foothold in the region at all and has come to the brink of losing the majority of its support in those places. The party’s losses in the East began with the mass resignation of the provincial chairs and their teams in Doğubayazıt and Eleşkirt; Bingöl, Van and Mardın soon followed. The CHP immediately began disciplinary investigations into its mayors who were part of this. But like the MHP, it seems unable to control its voter losses.

The DSP was unable to accept the lowering of the 10 percent election threshold and so was forced to join the “no” camp; resignations from its base are continuing in addition to the losses it suffered when Kılıçdaroğlu took over the CHP. In addition, the loss of some of the votes brought in by Şişli Mayor Mustafa Sarıgül makes it seem like the Masum Türker administration’s threshold nightmare won’t end soon. On top of that, the DSP’s hopes were further dashed when some important names from Sarıgül’s team joined the AK Party in mass ceremonies.

As for the BDP, which is also in the “no” camp: Its party administration was shocked by resignations in its administration by members unhappy with the “no” decision. The party was forced to change its stance to a boycott of the vote. But the party base doesn’t seem to have accepted that decision, either; the party administration knows that if its voters go to the polls they will vote yes. It seems to have avoided mass resignations by switching to the boycott tactic – but apparently in the aftermath of the vote, if the “yes” side wins, the BDP will still have some answering to do to its base.