Public survey: Reform package supporters overwhelm opponents

According to the poll, 7.8 percent of the respondents said they will not go to the ballot box on referendum day. Five percent said they had not yet decided whether or not to cast a vote on Sept. 12.

The Justice and Development Party (AK Party), led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was hoping to replace the current Constitution, a remnant of Turkey's 1980 coup d'état, when it swept to power in 2002. It drafted a document in 2007 but failed to convince opposition parties to support it. Undeterred, the party prepared a list of partial amendments -- including vital changes to the Constitution's most problematic articles. The amendments will be put to a public referendum on Sept. 12 -- on the 30th anniversary of the 1980 coup, the bloodiest in Turkey's history.

The existing Constitution, ratified in a referendum in 1982, has frequently been a target of harsh criticism as it fails to meet the needs of today's world and restricts fundamental rights and freedoms. Pollmark said “yes” votes are likely to reach 56.2 percent if only the responses of those who have already decided to go to the ballot box are taken into consideration. Similarly, the number of decided “no” votes is likely to reach 43.8 percent. The highest number of “yes” votes is expected from cities in Central Anatolia. The highest number of “no” votes is expected from cities in the Marmara region.

The lowest participation rate in the referendum will come from southeastern Anatolia, according to the survey. The pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) has decided to boycott the referendum on the grounds that the constitutional amendment package does not meet the needs of Kurds for an entirely new constitution. The party is urging its supporters in the region not to go to the ballot box on referendum day.

However, the allegedly “forced” boycott will not prevent the majority of southeastern voters from casting a vote on the constitutional amendments, according to the survey. The survey found that at least 70 percent of voters in the region plan to go to the polls on Sept. 12.

It was the Kurds who suffered the most from the consequences of the 1980 coup. Thirty-four people were killed and hundreds were tortured at a prison in Diyarbakır after the military takeover. The use of the Kurdish language in public was banned, and an unofficial ban on the language remained for many years.

More than 14 percent of supporters of the planned changes to the Constitution said they will not cast a vote on referendum day, while 30.9 percent of reform package opponents said the same.

The percentage of those who both support the reforms and intend to vote was put at 42.5 percent by the Pollmark survey, while those who oppose the package and intend to vote reached 34.9 percent. The undecided voters accounted for 22.6 percent.

Support for AK Party grows

Pollsters also questioned the respondents about their voting behavior. If parliamentary elections were held today, 45.5 percent of those polled said they would vote for the ruling AK Party. This is a figure much higher than the March 2009 local elections in which the AK Party won around 39 percent of the vote.

The Republican People's Party (CHP) would receive 27 percent of votes cast. This figure shows that the main opposition party has been unable to maintain its rising popularity among voters since the election of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as party leader. Polls conducted shortly after his election suggested that the CHP was likely to garner over 30 percent of the national vote in the next parliamentary elections, scheduled for July 2011. According to Pollmark, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) would receive 11.8 percent of the votes, while the BDP would get 5.9 percent.