[NEWS ANALYSIS] Reform eliminates foreign investors' doubts

Ergün believes the package will facilitate conducting business and will eliminate any hesitation investors may have about Turkey. Ergün invited Today's Zaman to join him during meetings in Nevşehir and Aksaray, two Central Anatolian provinces he is visiting to explain the constitutional amendment package. This gave us the opportunity to talk to the minister about Turkish politics during the drive from Ankara to Nevşehir. Ergün, who started his political career at a very young age, can today be considered a warhorse of politics. His profound and well-structured analyses give important messages. Although he has only recently become a minister, he has important observations about Turkish industry and capital, which also help him in the referendum campaign. He is the most comfortable Justice and Development Party (AK Party) minister when talking to business owners about the package.

Ergün, who says that the package is full of opportunities that will make business much easier for the Turkish industrialist and entrepreneur, notes that the establishment of an ombudsman’s office and the right of individually applying to the Constitutional Court alone are good enough reasons to support the package. AK Party spokespeople who are campaigning for “yes” votes in the referendum seem to specialize in those parts of the package that concern their own areas of expertise. Minister Ergün sums up the benefits the package offers the industrialist and the entrepreneur in a single sentence: “With this constitutional amendment package, any hesitation that foreign and domestic investors may have are being erased. This package, which seeks to create a more liberal atmosphere, will also liberate the industrialist.”

‘Yes’ votes dominate Central Anatolia

Minister Ergün speaks excitedly and enthusiastically about the reforms offered by the package, in a manner that falls out of the established rules of ministerial protocol. And doing this comes easily to him, particularly in Central Anatolia, a region where small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) are high in number. The local tradesmen and chambers of commerce don’t even need to be convinced, as they are fully aware of what the referendum will earn them and the country. Minister Ergün attributes the high support for the referendum in the region to the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) – which is campaigning for nays in the public vote – being at odds with its own grass roots. Central Anatolia forms most of the MHP’s traditional electorate.

The MHP – which received 14 percent of the vote, but apparently most of these were borrowed votes from supporters of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) – is losing support in the region. Ergün says if the borrowed votes that came mostly from Turkey’s coastal regions return to the CHP, the MHP might even risk not being able to exceed the threshold to get into Parliament. The minister, just like other AK Party administrators, does not even try to change the minds of CHP voters on the package. However, he knows that every point taken from the MHP will have a multiplying effect in favor of the AK Party in next year’s general elections.

Small and medium scale industrialists and manufacturers, according to Ergün, are more open minded than the business elite in İstanbul, such as those members of Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen’s Association (TÜSİAD), who are too afraid to say that they will vote against the package. Ergün says it is natural for organizations like TÜSİAD not to be in favor of the package. According to Ergün, the AK Party has always pursued policies that came with out-of-the box thinking, and that the business world cannot think freely because capital in Turkey has been structured in a state-dominant fashion since the establishment of the republic. He says that even if TÜSİAD endorsed the package, it is unlikely that all its members would heed that call.

Ergün is also aware that big-time industrialists have been, many times, on the side of military coups d’état considering the weight of the state in the economy. This is because Turkish industry has been built by a few families who are uneasy about the possibility of a more equitable distribution of wealth. However, this structure is being broken with the base of the society getting involved in industrial activity.

A crack in the blocs

Minister Ergün still wants every civil society organization and the business world to question the referendum and make public whether they endorse the package or not. “There will be a crack in the blocs that make up the business world after the referendum,” Ergün says. He is certain that the package will pass, but he believes that the percentage of “yes” votes will shift the balance in Turkish politics and civil society organizations. He says that if the yes votes are above 55 percent, this will be a turning point for opposition parties. However, the minister is uneasy about the polarization that has formed around the referendum, and he blames the opposition’s narrow-minded view that “every proposal from the government is bad” for the deep cleavage among the two camps. He also says that TÜSİAD, Turkey’s most powerful business organization, which has in the past managed to assign or even overthrow governments, is likely to suffer from a high percentage of “yes” votes.

The Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges (TOBB) has so far been undecided about the package, which has exasperated Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who warned that all parties who remain impartial will be eliminated. However, TOBB chooses to remain silent, which is something that Ergün also criticizes. “This is not a general election. We are not voting for political parties here. Civil society organizations should make their attitudes on the package clear, and explain why they are saying no or yes. Nobody has the right to say, ‘I don’t care,’ because the package concerns everyone, including the industrialists and tradesmen of this country.”

Minister Ergün also criticized those who claim that the two articles in the package making changes to the structure of the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) and the Constitutional Court as an attempt to dominate the judiciary by individuals and organizations who would like to see the status quo maintained.

“We are not taking over the judiciary. The opposition should clearly explain how this can be done. What we are trying to do is establish a democratic judiciary.”

He also criticizes the opposition for being opportunistic and recalls that not a single political party had spoken out against a political ban imposed on Prime Minister Erdoğan in 2002. To the contrary, the parties saw this as an opportunity, and he recalls that a similar attitude was displayed when a senior prosecutor tried to shut down the AK Party in 2008. He says the judiciary was used by opposition parties to block the AK Party from coming to power and then to remove it from power, although the attempts proved futile, and he notes that the package will democratize the judiciary. He also says those who are against the changes in the judiciary simply want to hold on to the power they currently wield.

Ergün also emphasizes that even if the package passes in the referendum, this will not end Turkey’s need for a new, holistic and civilian-oriented constitution. He believes that the package will also spur demand for comprehensive constitutional change.