25 percent of Americans happy with the nation

It does not bode well for incumbents that as of mid-July, only 25 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the state of the country. Political polarization remains extremely high: There is an astounding 69 percentage point difference between Republican and Democratic approval of President Obama’s performance. The president’s overall approval rating has dropped 15 percentage points over the past year and Congress’s approval rating has dropped 14 points. This striking polarization and the shift in independents’ support could be major factors in the midterm elections.

The administration raised hopes broadly about ending partisanship, and support for Obama among Democrats, Republicans and independents was high in the first two quarters of 2009. Bipartisanship, of course, is a two-way street, and over the past five quarters, Republicans have mostly been unwilling to support the president’s initiatives. For his part, Obama invoked bipartisanship a great deal, but the public saw little in action. His signature effort at bipartisanship was a rare event: the Blair House summit on health-care reform.

Perhaps more troubling for the White House is its declining approval among independents; their approval of the president’s performance has fallen 17 points over the past year. Factors for the decline include the flagging economy and failure to bridge the partisan divide. And while many have focused on the president’s decline in general popularity among white voters, his ratings among Hispanic voters have taken a comparative free-fall -- despite the administration’s support for immigration reform and its response to Arizona’s immigration law.

Over the past year, Obama scored major legislative victories on health care and financial reform. But polarization in Congress has stymied efforts to address such pressing problems as climate change, energy conservation, immigration and campaign finance. High unemployment persists: Twenty states have unemployment rates greater than 9 percent, and the levels are higher in some key metropolitan areas. Big portions of the country are still experiencing recession-like conditions, which limit states’ ability to deal with housing, education and transportation issues. US real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of only 2.4 percent in the second quarter. This weak recovery in growth makes it difficult to substantially reduce unemployment.

With 37 gubernatorial races this year, more than two-thirds of the states could have new leadership. In the face of federal inaction, states and metro areas have become the real innovators in US politics. Officials in the Kansas City metro area, the Bay Area, the Puget Sound region of Washington, and Greater Chicago, for example, have developed collaborative plans for maximizing their Recovery Act funds and state spending on energy efficiency, foreclosure responses and “green” jobs. Many gubernatorial candidates are emphasizing job creation, particularly through boosting exports. Almost all states and municipalities are required to balance their budgets, which forces them to make pragmatic decisions on taxes and spending.

The situation abroad is mixed. The president seems committed to reducing the US troop presence in Iraq, though violence there persists. And the Afghanistan conflict continues to trouble many Americans and had been exacerbated by troubles in Pakistan even before the recent flooding. It is unclear whether the governments of those nations have the institutional will and capacity to deliver security and services to their people.

Overseas conflicts, the shaky US economy and low trust in government make this a challenging election season for incumbents, particularly Democrats. The extremely high “partisan gap” makes it imperative for those elected to work across party lines if they hope to make big policy changes.