Turkey, Russia compete to tilt balance in the South Caucasus

Vying with Russia in the South Caucasus is a new challenge for Turkey, one it has not tackled before and for which it is largely unprepared. A rare oasis of economic growth in Azerbaijan in recent years thanks to an oil windfall has offset the military balance against Armenia, as the Caspian country has heavily invested in its military might. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said this summer that his country’s military spending, at $2.15 billion, is greater than Armenia’s total budget. Despite Azerbaijan’s growing presence in the region in terms of its military power, Russia has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to Armenia’s security, which surprisingly did not bother the Azerbaijani political elite. War hawks in Azerbaijan have raised their voices, and the administration vowed to resume the war if diplomacy fails, a situation interpreted as a fact given that the country’s war rhetoric matches its military muscle.

Some might have argued several years ago that Russia’s superior military power was petering out in the region, but this does not ring true today. Russia fought a full-fledged armed conflict with its southern neighbor Georgia in August 2008 over the disputed Georgian territory of South Ossetia, resulting in Russian recognition of the largely unrecognized republic. In addition, in late July of this year, Russia extended its lease of a Russian army unit in Armenia -- estimated to include 4,000 Russian troops, along with several S-300 air defense missile systems -- until 2049, which drew the ire of Armenian opposition due to fears that Russia is increasing its influence over the former Soviet republic.

Turkey and Azerbaijan concluded a Strategic Partnership and Mutual Assistance deal on Aug. 16 during Gül’s two-day visit to Azerbaijan at the invitation of his Azerbaijani counterpart, Aliyev. This came just days before agreements on a strategic partnership between Russia and Armenia during Medvedev’s visit to Armenia on Aug. 19.

“The recent strategic partnership deal between the two represents a response to the Russian-Armenian agreements,” Lawrence Sheets, Caucasus Project Director of the International Crisis Group, said.

In contrast, Rövşen İbrahimov, the head of the international relations department at Qafqaz University, said in an interview with Sunday’s Zaman that the strategic partnership deal should not be considered a political response to the Russian-Armenian military agreement. According to İbrahimov, the deal displayed and proved the high-level strategic relations between the two countries. The expert said the most important part of the discussions was the negotiations on energy security issues, the provision of Azerbaijani gas for the Nabucco gas pipeline and the solution of the problems with Turkmenistan.

Despite the intensified cooperation of Russia with Armenia in the region to deepen security ties, Russia remains a close friend and significant trade partner of both Turkey and Azerbaijan. Russian Defense Ministry officials also leaked intelligence last week that Russia has sold two S-300 air defense systems to Azerbaijan, which was later denied by the Kremlin but not Baku.

“There is little question that the base extension agreement until 2049 between Moscow and Yerevan represents a strengthening of their strategic alliance,” Sheets said. However, he argued, this has not been accompanied by any outward signs of a significant deterioration in Azerbaijani-Russian relations, perhaps given the increasing commercial relations between Baku and Moscow. Speaking about the S-300 air defense systems, Sheets said it is not possible to conclude whether Russia is playing both sides of the fence -- either in order to enhance its strategic position in the Caucasus or for the sake of preserving some sort of regional balance that would represent a deterrent to both Yerevan and Baku becoming embroiled in another full-scale conflict.

Although details of the agreement between Turkey and Azerbaijan are not yet available, it is believed the deal mostly includes cooperation in the security and military spheres. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reported on Monday that Undersecretary Murad Bayar of the Undersecretariat for the Defense Industry (SSM) and Azerbaijani Defense Minister Sefer Abiyev held talks to discuss in some detail the strategic partnership agreement and possible military cooperation opportunities between the two countries.

Vafa Guluzade, the head of the Caspian Research Center, said he does not believe the deal is strong and that it could not be a response to the deal sealed between Russia and Armenia. He said similar deals, including military ones, should be signed between the two allies.

Russia has long attempted to isolate Georgia by surrounding it with its military presence in the Caucasus. Russia announced last week that it installed two S-300 air defense missile systems in Georgia’s breakaway Abkhazia region. The Russian 102nd military base in Armenia has S-300 air defense systems but they are hardly able to cover Azerbaijani territories but do have the capability to strike eastern Turkey. Some also believe that the positioning of the military base has resulted in Georgia being surrounded. “More than Azerbaijan, the Russian-Armenian deal is directed against Turkey and NATO,” Guluzade alleged.