Why is al-Qaeda threatening Turkey?
by
ORHAN KEMAL CENGİZ

“What would you think if I offered you the thought that there is a strong link between the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the heinous attacks on the twin towers in New York? I call this the suspended butterfly effect. The classic butterfly effect theory holds that if a butterfly flaps its wings in China, it will set off a tornado in California. The historical butterfly effect also worked like that: The wind created by the collapse of the Ottoman Empire unfortunately turned into a tornado in New York in 2001. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the abolishment of the caliphate (the central religious and moral authority for all Muslims) created a huge vacuum in the Muslim world, a vacuum from which the whole world still suffers.

“Would it be possible for Osama bin Laden to issue a fatwa for jihad if the Muslim world had a caliphate that had the hearts and minds of all Muslims and was also loyal to democratic values? With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Muslims lost a central authority, and today the whole world suffers because of this lack of a central Muslim authority that would dare tell bin Laden that he misinterprets the Quran and that Islam is a religion of peace, not the kind of war he masterminds.

“Not only the lack of a caliphate, but also the collapse of the Ottoman Empire had a huge impact on the Muslim world. The vacuum left by the Ottoman Empire was filled with endless wars and conflicts.”

After this introduction we can start to discuss a peculiar phenomenon that is happening today.

Al-Qaeda threatens Turkey

The second in command of al-Qaeda, Mr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, has “warned” Turkey twice in just a month, first at the end of July and second this last Sunday. He accuses Turkey of collaborating with Israel, sending troops to Afghanistan, etc. Quite interestingly, these warnings came after the flotilla incident that caused a serious showdown between Turkey and Israel.

It is quite obvious that the sympathy in the Muslim world for Turkey sparked by the flotilla incident has seriously bothered al-Qaeda. I think with these statements we can only see the tip of the iceberg. I believe the discontent of al-Qaeda with Turkey and its threats will grow and become bolder with every passing day. I believe al-Qaeda now sees Turkey as a kind of obstacle in its global jihad strategy, and this perspective will only be strengthened in the near future.

Alluring Turkey

With all the authoritarian and repressive regimes in the Middle East, which lack the support of their people, things have been quite easy for al-Qaeda. From its perspective, for Muslims there are only two powers: their corrupt governments on the one hand, and the Israeli and Western powers, which are trying to dominate the region, on the other. In this world being a Muslim only means to suffer humiliation, repression, being seen as a backward person and being victim of Israeli and Western aggression.

The new Turkey, which has just left behind Kemalist isolationist policies in international politics and has started to pay greater attention to the Middle East and the Muslim world, is a threat for al-Qaeda, since it has the potential to upset all balances in the region. It is like that for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, Turkey represents hope that a Muslim country can have a fully functioning democracy and good relations with the West without losing its identity or sacrificing its honor. In spite of suffering some embarrassing limitations, like the ban on headscarves at universities, Turkey proves that there is no conflict between modernity and being a Muslim or having a secular system and living up to the expectations of one’s religion.

Al-Qaeda has threatened some Muslim countries before, saying they are puppets of Western powers and so on. In this sense it is quite interesting to witness that its threat to Turkey comes after the country proved that it is merely pursuing its own agenda in the Middle East. Al-Qaeda leaders make many references to the Ottoman Empire, but I believe their allergy to Turkey mainly stems from the very fact that Turkey has the potential to fill the gap left in the Muslim world by the disappearance of the Ottoman Empire.

Kemalist Turkey rejected its Ottoman heritage and cut all relations with the Muslim world, but with devout Muslims in power the new Turkey has resurrected these relations once again. If this process continues, Turkey will inevitably be the leading voice and the role model for the entire Muslim world. This is, of course, not a world that al-Qaeda yearns for.