Komorowski, a member of Tusk’s Civic Platform Party, won 52.6 percent of votes in Sunday’s poll, according to results based on 95 percent of the ballots, after a cliff-hanger vote that saw his right-wing rival Jaroslaw Kaczynski perform much better than expected. But political analysts said the unexpected tightness of the presidential race, the prospect of looming local elections and a parliamentary vote due in 2011 could lead Tusk to take a cautious approach in introducing potentially unpopular reforms.“[Komorowski’s win is] market positive,” Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients. “However, these reforms look increasingly unlikely to happen quickly as local and parliamentary elections are approaching.” In Poland, the government sets policies and the ruling Civic Platform faces an elevated budget deficit, high public debt, a public health system in disarray and an inefficient pension system. Changes in the pension system could hit farmers, miners and teachers, among others.
The president can propose and veto laws, has a say in foreign and policy issues and appoints key state officials. Kaczynski, who heads the main right-wing opposition party and was vying to succeed his twin brother Lech whose death in a plane crash in April precipitated the vote, scored 47.4 percent. Lech Kaczynski vetoed some of Tusk’s reforms in the past.
”You have all the power now. Show us what you can do,” Poland’s top-selling daily Fakt said on its front page, referring to Tusk’s PO. Other newspapers urged the PO to deliver on promised reforms, with the Gazeta Wyborcza daily saying Tusk would lose next year’s parliamentary election if he failed to do so.
Despite these concerns, markets welcomed Komorowski’s victory and the Polish zloty strengthened slightly against the euro and the dollar in early Monday trade. “The election result was not clear and this was weighing on the zloty. Now, that we see Komorowski has won, the zloty has gained and returned to the usual correlation with global markets,” said a Warsaw-based FX dealer.
On Sunday night Tusk vowed to push ahead with his plans to introduce an anchor on public spending. His finance minister, Jacek Rostowski, said a cautious 2011 budget was now crucial.
