How much does intelligence cost?
by
Eser Karakaş*

Shortcomings in intelligence seem to have played a big role in the perpetration of terror attacks as revealed in every such case. There is the question of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) that silently approaches soldiers, carries out attacks and kills many as was the case with the Aktütün, Dağlıca and Şemdinli attacks. In the latest incident in Şemdinli last weekend, there were interesting statements from the military saying that the soldiers thought the approaching individuals were shepherds. The military also failed to figure out the exact number of terrorists. In the TV programs we watch in the evenings, we see retired generals who even link the intelligence shortcomings to the exposure of JİTEM, an illegal organization founded inside the gendarmerie and accused of hundreds of atrocities against civilians in the Southeast.

Actually, an ordinary person today can provide more effective spatial intelligence by using the Google Earth program in his computer. It is not a new thing that the notion of intelligence is used along with the PKK issue. Former Chief of General Staff Gen. Yaşar Büyükanıt had likened northern Iraq to a “Big Brother” house in order to show how closely the region was followed. This statement by him just sits at the center of the intelligence debates. Probably the intelligence that turns this region into a “Big Brother” house comes from the US, and we remember very well how our troops suddenly had to withdraw from the region due to a halt in the flow of intelligence during a cross-border operation.

What kind of a product is this intelligence that is monopolized by the US, how is it produced, how much does it cost to produce? These questions are not being asked and debated in our country.  

Three issues should not be confused while the issue of intelligence and in particular its effectiveness and cost are being discussed: first is the country’s total military expenditure, second is space expenditure for military purposes and the third is space research in general. What lies at the base of the concept of intelligence which we have to deal with today is space expenditure for military purposes, and thanks to this expenditure, the US is able turn northern Iraq into a “Big Brother” house for itself today; it conveys some of that intelligence to us whenever it wants and to the extent that it wants. Let’s start to look into the issue in general terms and let’s find out the top 10 countries in terms of military spending. These countries were as follows for 2008:

1- US:  $607 billion

2- China: $85 billion

3- France: $66 billion

4- UK: $66 billion

5- Russia: $57 billion

6- Germany: $47 billion

7- Japan: $46 billion

8- Italy: $41 billion

9- Saudi Arabia: $38 billion

10- India: $30 billion

We obtained all this data and those I will give below from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) website. SIPRI is a Stockholm-based international peace institute and is an institution whose information is accepted worldwide. As we see, Turkey is not among the countries with the highest military expenditures. Annual military expenditures in Turkey amount to around $16 billion. But the country faces two important problems, even with this amount. The first problem stems from problems in reaching an exact figure since not all military expenditures come out of that budget. The second is that the efficiency of the total expenditure, which is estimated to be around $16 billion, can never be debated. Since the topic of my article today is not that, I will not elaborate on this issue further. Let’s return to the intelligence issue and in particular the issue of space-based intelligence. As we can see in the table, the US by far ranks first in military expenditure but most importantly, it is also outscores other countries in space expenditure for military purposes.  

In 2009, with its budget of $50 billion, the US was responsible for 72 percent of the world’s civilian and military space expenditure, accounting for almost three-quarters of it. The European Union, on the other hand, had a budget of $7.9 billion, which comprised the civilian and military expenditure borne by the 18 member states of the European Space Agency. Japan has made a move in that regard and has a budget of almost $3 billion, while that of Russia, China and India are around $2.8 billion, $2 billion and $1 billion, respectively. It is a fact that Turkey does not engage in public or private research spending in this field.

As can be seen, military intelligence is increasingly becoming a product of space-related research and as some of our retired generals say, it represents a tragicomic picture to assume that intelligence is something carried from one man to another and be content with that.

But we have to see that there is a concrete international problem in that the US has an immense monopoly with the amount it spent in 2009 on space-related military intelligence. It is not meaningful to interpret this as a problem of inequality because the US has made investments to this end, creating a large monopoly. What is important is to make skilful moves in the field of international relations and to draw vital information and intelligence from this monopoly. If you cannot do this or if problems arise between you and this monopoly due to certain stances you take in international relations, then you will think that groups carrying heavy weapons with mules along your border are just shepherds and you will only understand that they are not shepherds once they open fire.

It is ridiculous to expect that the power of intelligence of a country that spends $50 billion a year and that of another which spends almost nothing are the same. You should either continue the strategic partnership with that country and do whatever it takes, or you should be more courageous in your initiatives. If you chose neither of those options, well then, you’ll have the shepherds mixed up.