Strategist Nihat Ali Özcan: Ethnic clashes possible in Turkey

“The PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] was aiming to build its identity by using terror and violence. The identity-building process is over. The PKK is looking to strengthen this, but it cannot achieve this goal by using the old methods. If it transforms the existing situation into ethnic clashes, then the identities will be crystallized,” he said, in an exclusive interview with Today’s Zaman.

Özcan, from the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), also drew attention to the fact that there is suitable ground for an ethnic clash. “The role of the media is very important. It should not use separatist language. The economic situation of the masses is not good, the unemployment rate is high. There is a tendency to describe negative things, such as robbery, rape and so on, over ethnic identities. Moreover, in the past this struggle was against only the PKK, but now many people have the tendency to accept the PKK as the only representative of the Kurds. Under these conditions, Turkey may suddenly find itself beset by ethnic rifts and clashes,” he said.

According to Özcan, in order to prevent this, urgent measures must be taken and the state apparatus must stand firm.

“If the state postpones immediate measures and leaves the process to time due to ideological disagreements among the decision-makers, real devastation will take place. Pre-emptive measures should be taken. The local authorities should be very careful about potential problem areas, such as the funerals of soldiers, football games, street demonstrations and places open to provocation. The administrators should be very careful about situations in which ethnic clashes can be agitated,” he said.

Dr. Nihat Ali Özcan

According to Özcan the media has a crucial role in this process. It should not use provocative and separatist language. The Internet media should not publish gossip based on ethnic rifts.

“The media should underline the humanitarian aspect of the problem. The politicians also have a very important role to play, but we know that during the election process some politicians have a tendency to act pragmatically. Everybody should be very careful about their discourse and actions,” Özcan suggested.

He said that he thanks God he is not a decision-maker in Turkey due to the situation.

“The issue is one of the most difficult issues in the world to handle. The room for maneuver is very narrow. There are rules to follow and there are limitations in the international arena. There is the burden of history and disagreement among different institutions of the state apparatus. But the decision-makers, despite all these shortcomings, must govern the situation well, which is an extremely difficult job,” Özcan said.

He also underlined that the decision-makers should make decisions while keeping in mind that the PKK, their sympathizers, the Kurds of southeastern Anatolia, the well-integrated Kurds in the west of the country, the Kurds in Europe and the Kurds who are living in Iraq, Syria and Iran are different from each other.

“While making a decision regarding one group, you have to take into consideration that your decision can create a negative impact on another that you don’t want to create,” Özcan claimed.

“You can create a solution for one of those groups, let’s say a decision which will address the identity demands of the PKK, but these decisions can force other Kurds in the west to face the consequences of this decision. They may be excluded even from the places where they were well integrated on the basis of their identities. This is why this issue is very complicated,” he said.

Özcan said that the clashes between state and non-state actors cannot be won by the latter, but that the state loses as well. He added that in the short run it is unlikely that the PKK will lose its power since it has a safe haven.

“As long as the situation in northern Iraq remains as it is now, the PKK can continue for at least another 50 years, I can guarantee that,” he said.