[Systemic precepts -- state politics]
Turkey’s realpolitik in context of conflict (1)
by
Bala Çelebi Şentürk*

Realpolitik, however, is the ability of each state to distinguish between what it must do and what it can do in order not to suffer from what others inflicted and what itself did or did not do in disregard of the consequences. The maxim is to identify the interests currently vital and possible for the nation-state in the given international context, while keeping a long-term focus on creating a more favorable “conjuncture” that does more than lower the pressure of the systemic structure, i.e., the relative degree to which others can and we must. It is an attempt at generating an environment which allows a state to pursue the desirable. Only a utility-based foreign policy of maximizing the state's maneuverability in achieving both its priorities (most notably security) and desirable objectives by constantly weighing a wide range of policy options against their net gains and losses is farsighted and fruitful. The international system itself has never been static, but dynamic. Hence it is an intervening factor requiring states to rearrange their policies along new paradigms of interstate relations as well.

Two decades ago the bipolar world order manifest in the East-West conflict, which had subjugated global affairs to the Cold War paradigm, ceased to dominate. Until then the Soviet Union and United States meant “global,” and anything that had been deemed “global” in its scope and ramifications merely referred to and involved these two superpowers. With a dramatic power shift, the protective bell jar along Turkey's southern and eastern borders evaporated. Her neighbors doubled almost overnight, multiplying the problems and latent opportunities ahead. For the following decade or so, Turkey, like Europe, sought to redefine her new role in that wholly new context that invalidated former foreign politics. The perplexity, however, prevailed. Nonetheless the world in unprecedented unison embarked on the course towards a “new world order” spearheaded by the victorious US, while the Soviet Union collapsed economically, politically and territorially as its superpowers faded away together with its capability to project influence from its non-Russian peripheries to its Russian core.

The changing global order

Today, behind the crumbling facade of global unity, the order is changing once again with many new (and old) powers in the ascendant across Asia, Latin America and Europe, gradually sealing the era of US primacy of setting the norms, rules and limits of political conduct. A multi-polar world is emerging and Turkey, which over the last decade has moved from the periphery to center stage with a role that has evolved from functional to pivotal in a vastly expanded political milieu, can play an extraordinary role therein. While the realist imperative of pursuing cautious policies with the view to minimize risks and maximize benefits in the long term prevails, the adoption of such a rational course corresponding to and accelerating the global change has yielded substantial political gains for Turkey.

Her “zero problems” diplomatic offensive and proactive global engagement based on the synthesis between her own preferences and capabilities and the sensitivities of other nations, as well as the careful assessment of her physical and political environment, elevated Turkey to the rank of rising regional powers. Over the last decade Turkey adopted and successfully played the role of facilitator of dialogue, of objective mediator in prolonged conflicts, and of initiator of new channels of communication, cooperation and trade that altogether enhance predictability, certainty and stability in what Turkey defines as her security environment. These qualities earned her the title of peacemaker and a good-standing membership in the international community. Considering that military capabilities alone cannot reflect power, but that power is defined by the extent to which a state can utilize available channels and mobilize new sources appropriate to further its national interests, e.g., by blending good and proactive global citizenship with national preferences, Turkey has grown powerful.

From a realist point of view the main interest lies most certainly therein to pursue interests without becoming a pariah, which would otherwise overwhelm Turkey's much needed and sensibly valued political flexibility. This is possible only when Turkey continues to weigh the consequences of her alternative political actions objectively in order to choose the most adequate, i.e., most secure and yielding, course of pursuit. Her decision-making cannot be solely subject to the preferences of other international powers. Nor can her policy-making be subordinated to domestic political imperatives, to moral, ideological or other kinds of aspirations, to parochial interests of any domestic group and to personal preferences of the leadership. The first inclination would dispute her national independence. The second could lead to an overestimation of her capabilities at the international political level, since it is in fact dedicated to the domestic realm. Respectively, both would be irrational and self-defeating in result.

Turkey’s politics in a turbulent context

Recent developments seem to make it difficult for Turkey to follow a purely rational course in her relations with states as different as Iran and Israel. However, in today's context it is more imperative than ever to act upon sober-minded policies in order not to incur self-inflicted and other imposed costs and consequences.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is not only a self-interested state in the political system; its claims as regards the Middle East are potentially incompatible with the notion of a powerful Turkey in the region. From a rational point of view, Iran cannot be expected to consent to a Pax Turcica at any time, although this would presumably also enhance Iran's security and make its vicinity more predictable. Hence, it is reasonable to assume that Iran does not in fact approve of any Turkish political engagement which directly or indirectly aims at such subsystem insofar as it would balance Iran's aspirations of becoming the dominant force in the near future. A growingly powerful Turkey is not the only factor preventing Iran from expanding its sphere of influence without creating a security dilemma. Iran's rhetoric against Israel, coupled with its failure to provide assurance of compliance with its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), has exacerbated its isolation in the international arena.