Kyrgyzstan violence could spill over into broader region, experts warn

The deaths have been caused by rampaging mobs led mainly by ethnic Kyrgyz against Uzbeks. Some claim there are also dozens of ethnic Kyrgyz among the dead. An estimated 400,000 people -- nearly one-twelfth of the population -- have fled their homes to escape Kyrgyzstan’s ethnic violence.

Observers draw similar lines between Central Asia’s ethnically split Fergana Valley, where most of the fierce ethnic fighting has take place in the past week, and the Balkans, warning that the recent political and ethnic violence could trigger a conflict of catastrophic proportions.

“There is certainly a risk that violence could spread to other parts of Kyrgyzstan that have ethnic Uzbek minority populations,” Rachel Denber, deputy director of the Europe and Central Asia division of Human Rights Watch, said in an interview with Sunday’s Zaman. However, she does not believe there are “long-protracted hatreds” in the region but that there are “grievances and resentments” over political and economic issues that get played out on ethnic lines.

Eric Walberg from Al-Ahram Weekly said the riots happened in the southern part of the Fergana Valley, where Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and Tajiks had been living side-by-side for centuries, and then Stalin divided the valley between ethnic republics in the 1920s, creating the basis for the current problems. Walberg said it is possible that the violence could spread to other areas in the region. “All these ‘countries’ are artificial creations from the days of imperialism. Ethnic rivalry is used by outside forces to promote geopolitical goals. The ethnic differences are not huge and were never lethal before the advent of capitalism,” the senior journalist stressed.

Alexander Cooley, an associate professor of political science at Columbia University, said it is always a possibility [that the conflict may spread to other areas in the region], but he does not believe it will spread at this time. “Although there are ethnic minorities scattered across other Central Asian countries in the Fergana Valley, the type of government weakness and lawlessness that we saw in southern Kyrgyzstan is not the case in Uzbekistan or even Tajikistan,” he said.

For a long time, the interim government sought to regain control of the southern regions and even at times when troops were successfully deployed to the region, Uzbeks reportedly said soldiers either ignored looting or they helped roving lynch mobs to intimidate local people. Many believe that lack of political control over the region escalated the level of tension, causing the deaths of hundreds of innocent people. “What is driving the violence,” Cooley ponders, “is the lack of central political authority and the inability of the new interim government, which lacks support among the Kyrgyz in the south of the country, to provide security and order for the minority Uzbek community.” Cooley added that the resulting tragedy shows how, in times of government weakness and internal anarchy, violence can erupt and even lead to ethnic cleansing of the type the world is now witnessing of the Uzbek community.

It seems likely that due to the lack of a political settlement and the fact that the Kyrgyz Republic continues to have an unstable security situation, the violence could have resulted in deep-rooted grievances, said Asher Pirt, an expert on Central Asia who has been interviewed frequently on recent developments in Kyrgyzstan. For Pirt, ethnic differences are not an important catalyst in driving the changing societies to fight. According to Pirt, changing societies often experience violence between different groups for different reasons. In his view, the reasons behind conflict are high unemployment and poverty as well as a lack of a political settlement. “A spark can easily lead to thugs and gangs causing violence and unrest, which happens in any country where there is little perception and reality of internal security,” Pirt concluded.

Denber also drew a similar conclusion, claiming that the political spark happened in a context in which ethnic Kyrgyz perceive ethnic Uzbeks in the south as dominating the markets and bazaars, and ethnic Uzbeks perceive that they are underrepresented in government and politics. Denber referred to clashes of two decades ago, when these dominating economic and political grievances exploded along ethnic lines in 1990 over land distribution.

Experts called for more dialogue between the sides and also an authority that would spearhead and assist such a dialogue and leadership. Denber said there may be a temptation for vengeance now that blood has been spilled, but she called for sound leadership that promotes tolerance, dialogue and openness to prevent the conflict from spinning out of control.

Yaşar Sarı, a professor at Abant İzzet Baysal University who lived in Kyrgyzstan for years, told Sunday’s Zaman that the conflicts are primarily due to the fact that there is a lack of dialogue and that the sides do not know each other well. “Turkey is respected in Central Asia. The government should mediate between the two nations to solve the conflict through dialogue,” Sarı said.