Is Turkey weaning itself off the US?
by
MÜMTAZ’ER TÜRKÖNE

In the first instance, it is not very likely that Turkey will change its axis because there is no alternative to the current axis. As a strategic ally of the US, Turkey is becoming more influential and powerful in its immediate region. There are visible contributions of Turkey’s growing influence and power over policies concerning the region. With Obama’s election, the US has started to recover its damaged image in the Muslim world. And the policies Turkey is pursuing make this rising image of the US more visible.

The enhanced reputation of Turkey in the region implies more security for Israel. It will be more difficult for the Muslim world to show hostility towards Israel at the expense of offending a Turkey that has good relations with Israel. Despite the crisis in Gaza, Turkey’s position vis-a-vis and its value for Israel have not changed.

On a global scale the question “Is Turkey distancing itself from the US?” is all the more meaningless. However, this question is particularly important for the domestic political players who seek to gain an advantage over the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party). Indeed, the different answers to this question have different effects on internal political balances.

Conspiracy theories

This question appeals to those who tend to believe in conspiracy theories or who regard the US and Israel as capable of doing anything in Turkey. If everything can change depending on conspiracies, then the US can change everything in Turkey and take steps to bring an end to the AK Party government. Here, the important thing is that those who believe in conspiracy theories also tend to use this imaginary power of the US as an instrument of analysis in domestic politics. According to these conspiracy theories, Turkey put its hand into the lion’s mouth and tried to save Iran by arranging the nuclear swap deal, and it has gone too far in the Gaza crisis. The most rational solution may be to save Turkey, which has turned into an immediate threat to US and Israeli interests, from the AK Party government. Don’t you think this is so? But is the US capable of changing governments it does not like? Those who support conspiracy theories present the resignation of Yukio Hatoyama in Japan as an example.

This happened early this week in Japan. Prime Minister Hatoyama had promised to remove the US base from the island of Okinawa but was unable to keep his word due to US pressure. Coalition partner the Social Democratic Party left the government because of this, and the prime minister had to resign. Thus, the fifth prime minister in three years was elected to office in Japan.

This is how the theory goes: The US interferes with already delicate internal balances in order to topple a government that is in conflict with US interests. In other words, the government is actually overthrown not by the US, but local players. This US operation plays into the hands of someone inside the country. For instance, who will benefit from the overthrowing of the AK Party government? We must make a long list. The first places go to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Ergenekon, which are followed by the AK Party’s rivals, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Republican People’s Party (CHP). The high judiciary oligarchy, which has been waging an open war of tutelage over the government, should be at the forefront of this big camp. The increase in PKK terrorism, new Ergenekon operations, the cancellation of the referendum by the Constitutional Court and the CHP expanding its voter base -- if such a large and effective camp launches an all-out attack, with or without cooperation among themselves, to topple the AK Party government, and if the US lends sensitive intelligence and effective psychological warfare to support to them, it would be very easy to achieve the goal. Yes, it is easy to do, but what then?

PKK’s hope

The PKK’s leadership is capable of assessing the developments in world politics and the Middle East in a rational way. They know well that Turkey has not drifted into a change of axis and that there is no major change in US policy. However, it becomes a valuable piece of propaganda for their target audience to claim that Turkey is moving away from the US. In order to see how the US factor affects the Middle East, we must analyze this PKK propaganda.

For an armed organization like the PKK to be effective, there should be cracks in the international balance so that it can settle in them and survive. The PKK’s militants are in a difficult situation. The PKK’s leadership cannot draw political targets for its militants and its supporters in the general public. This is because the world conjuncture does not allow them to do this. The axis shift debate serves as a lifeline for the desperate PKK. Thus, the masses who are sympathetic to the PKK wrongly believe that thanks to this nonexistent axial shift, they can secure support from the US.

The recently increased terror attacks are conducted under the intoxication of this propaganda. With this argument the PKK can persuade the Kurds who believe that armed attacks will not be productive. Thus, the axis shift proves valuable not physically, but in the imagination.

Opposition to the AK Party

As in the case of PKK terror, these debates boost the morale of the opposition parties. This is the very argument heartily used by the great coalition against the AK Party. Thus, they claim that Turkey is increasingly following pro-Islamic policies -- by getting closer to Iran, affording protection to Hamas and showing hostility to Israel -- and taking Turkey on the wrong course. They further suggest that the US, guided by the Jewish lobby, has signed the death warrant of the AK Party government. There are many people who really believe in this scenario and work zealously to make it happen.

So what is the truth? Sensible and objective analysts argue that for the AK Party, a policy that does not take the global US hegemony into consideration is wrong, apart from the likelihood of drawing the US’s wrath. The US is currently maintaining its attack of sympathy towards the Muslim world using the still-clean face of Obama. Hegemony, by definition, relies on consent supported by power, not on absolute coercion or violence. With the invasion of Iraq and the chaos in Afghanistan, the US suffered from a major weakness in legitimacy. The final operation planned in Kandahar is intended to put an end to the irreversible error. Now, it seeks to correct its errors. There are multiple power centers in the US. Israel has turned into a heavy burden that the US can no longer carry, particularly with regard to the legitimacy it seeks, i.e., international consent. Turkey is the most powerful prop for the legitimacy the US is seeking in the international arena. This is the very Turkey where the AK Party is at the helm. Only a Turkey that is prestigious in the Muslim world can act as an effective partner to the US in its quest for legitimacy.

This analysis is correct, but it does not have any propaganda value for the AK Party’s opponents because they have to answer this question: If Israel or one of the power centers in the US has decided to topple the AK Party government, with whom inside Turkey will they cooperate?

Turkey is becoming a country wherein the boundaries between foreign policy and domestic policy are becoming increasingly blurred.