Is the Israeli government dancing with Turkey or the UN?
by
Bekir Çınar*

Looking to Turkey

To begin with, Turkey had always been a good ally of Israel until this deadly event happened. Turkey has generally never truly pressured Israel on the Palestinian conflict and, in particular, Israel’s illegal Gaza blockade, during the past. However, this has changed because of the nine Turkish citizens who were killed by Israeli soldiers on the ship, which was in international waters. The Turkish public and the families of these victims want the Turkish government to force the Israeli government to pay for their crimes. Furthermore, the Turkish prime minister and foreign minister have already publicly pledged to do so. Their pledges have led to certain expectations among the public. Consequently, in Turkey the elected government has gained more power in international relations than the military.

Secondly, Turkey and Israel have reached agreements in the fields of defense and security along with the modernization of Turkish military equipment and a free trade agreement. Turkey pays quite a substantial amount of money to Israel for their assistance in modernizing its military, and there is a considerable volume of trade between the two countries. Turkey has not yet mentioned whether these agreements will be affected. If Turkey does not get what it wants from Israel, these factors may increase Turkey’s leverage.

Thirdly, Turkey has supported the Palestinians since 1991, when President Turgut Özal explicitly stated the country’s support for them. Furthermore, the prime minister of Turkey publicly declared that Hamas is not a terrorist organization, as it is referred to by Israel.

Fourth, Turkey and Syria are now allies, and Syria no longer poses any threat to Turkey. Even more, Turkey and Syria have signed various agreements on trade, eliminated visa requirements and put aside their historical disagreements. And so, Turkey does not need a strong Israel any longer as Syria is no longer a security concern.

Finally, Turkey is a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council and NATO, and according to international law Israel’s attack falls under the definition of “declaration of war.”

Looking to Israel

Initially, Israel was one of the US’s strongest allies, and the Israeli government continues to believe that the US administration will support them regardless of their actions. However, it seems that this is an incorrect assumption and that the Obama administration does not seem willing to support the Israeli government in their every action. Since Obama came to power, the US’s relationship with Israel has deteriorated.

Secondly, since its establishment Israel has not obeyed any UN resolutions, and several attempts to make peace with the Palestinians have not borne any fruit. Furthermore, Israel has continued doing what it wants in Palestine and continues to occupy Palestinian territory.

Thirdly, the role of the military in Israeli domestic and international politics is influential and important. According to Metin Heper, in the Israeli political system “the civilian is dominant.” Yet the expansion of the military’s role coupled with the breakdown of formal boundaries between military and civilian institutions indicates that the military has come to play a significant role in Israeli political life. Indeed, many senior officers are involved in politics and occupy key positions in the government. Some of them even become prime minister and/or defense minister. For example, the current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the minister of defense and deputy prime minister, Ehud Barak, were formerly soldiers. Therefore, the current Israeli government thinks of its security and foreign relations policies in military terms more than political ones. For example, Mr. Netanyahu has described those on board the Irish-owned Rachel Corrie as “peace activists” but labeled the other vessel -- the Mavi Marmara -- a “ship of hate organized by violent Turkish terror extremists.”

Fourth, the Israeli government was aware of the uproar their attack would create in Turkey as well as on the international scene. It seems that Israel will have to eventually accept the proposed international commission because the Obama administration may not support Israel due to the amount of pressure put on them by Turkey and some European nations, including Britain and France, as well as Russia and China.  

The Turkish government and prime minister will not forget their pledge to the public and are working to gather more support from international players for Turkey’s cause.

The involvement of key world players is important because they will bring more pressure to bear on the Israeli government. For example the UK and France have “urged Israel to accept an inquiry involving international oversight.” Further, as the British foreign secretary clearly stated: “We continue to stress to the Israeli government the importance of an investigation that ensures accountability and commands the confidence of the international community, and includes international participation. ...We urgently need to see unfettered access to Gaza to meet the humanitarian needs of the people of Gaza and to enable the reconstruction of homes, livelihoods and trade. That is why we continue to press the government of Israel to lift Gaza’s closure. I am also discussing these issues urgently with our international partners -- including during my visits to European capitals in the next few days.”

The Israeli government may not be able to resist the many leaders around the world who do not believe that it has acted within the framework of international law and with justice. There will be massive international pressure on Israel that will lead to an eventual and durable solution to what’s happening in Gaza. Moreover, some leaders, such as those in the UN Security Council, believe that current Israeli restrictions are counterproductive for Israel’s long-term security.

Finally, as stated by Ofra Bengio, a senior research fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies: “To be sure, Turkey’s policies towards Israel have undergone a sweeping change. Still, Israel should not play into Ankara’s hands and further worsen relations. Israel does not have the luxury of being able to alienate such an important country and adding it to the long list of its enemies. If Israel cannot win the sympathy of the leadership, it should certainly try to ease relations on the socioeconomic level.” Consequently, it is Israel’s decision as to whether they would like to have more enemies than friends.