Massoud Barzani’s Visit to Turkey: Reasons, Expectations and the Future

This visit by Mr. Barzani can be considered a turning point for the relations between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds. However, as a result of regarding the process leading to the visit in a careless way will lead to the error of augmenting the visit with different meanings than it actually has. For this reason, it will be useful to look through the visit with utmost attention. 

It would be possible to consider the cross border operations of Turkey against the PKK camps in the north of Iraq in 2008 as the beginning of the process leading to this visit. While the operation was being carried out, Jalal Talabani, the president of Iraq and the leader of PUK was invited to Turkey. This was a clear indication that Turkey wanted to have clear channels of dialogue with the Iraqi Kurds, while the cross border operation was going on. However, Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu’s visit to Iraq on October 30th, 2009 can rightly be regarded as the beginning of the process that led to Massoud Barzani’s visit. During his visit, Davutoglu officially opened Turkish consulates in Basra and Mosul, and paid a visit to Arbil for the first time in a very long period.

The relations have been developing in a quiet but a fast manner after Davutoglu’s visit. While efforts toward opening a new border gate and a free trade zone in Northern Iraq was going on, Turkey opened a consulate in Arbil in March 2010. Moreover, the former Prime Minister of Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government Nechirvan Barzani had talks with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul at the end of March 210; a development which was a major step in the realization of Barzani’s visit. On April 28, it was reported in the media that Feridun Sinirlioglu, the deputy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs visited Arbil and officially invited Massoud Barzani as the president of Kurdish Regional Government to Turkey.

To summarize, those points can be marked in order to emphasize the significance of the visit that realized after the aforementioned process:

1. Massoud Barzani, who was almost considered identical to PKK by Turkish media and public opinion three years ago, due to his approach toward Turkey’s struggle against PKK terror and his attempts to interfere in Turkish domestic politics, is silently visiting Turkey after a long time. This situation can be qualified as a change in approach in Turkish public opinion and political circles.

2. Although he visited Turkey in the 1990s several times, this time Massoud Barzani is visiting not as the leader of KDP but as the head of IKRG which is a federal institution in Iraq. This situation reflects one of the biggest wishes of the Iraqi Kurds as researchers and academicians of the region frequently tell us during our visits to Northern Iraq.

3. This visit signifies an important step by Turkey toward developing cooperation with Iraqi Kurds by sending a good will and friendship message, although its expectations from them are not met.

4. This visit might actually have a historic quality if concrete steps toward cooperation increase after the visit.

Dynamics that Urge for the Visit and Its Reasons

It is a widely known fact that relations between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds became tenser and on occasions got much worse, after the invasion of Iraq. Turkey distanced itself from the Iraqi Kurds due to their negative policies on Turkey’s struggle against the PKK, interference in Turkey’s domestic affairs, preservation of Iraq’s territorial integrity, the status of Kirkuk, and the Iraqi Turkmens. However, it seems that good relations replaced this situation in the last period. The reason for this is mostly Turkey’s policy toward the Middle East and its need to take some new strategic steps due to the change in Iraq.

That is because, Turkey’s policies and approach toward the preservation of Iraq’s territorial integrity and struggle against the PKK has not changed. That is to say, Massoud Barzani’s visit to Turkey does not mean that Turkey recognizes the political structure in the Northern Iraq as a separate entity. However, a new constitution was adopted after the invasion of Iraq, according to which three provinces in the north of the country constitutes a federation. For a long time, Turkey claimed that a federal structure in Iraq based on ethnicity would lead to separation. However, ignoring an issue that was put forward by the constitution of Iraq did not prove useful. Especially, since Turkey underlines that it keeps the same distance to all groups in Iraq, it is quite natural that it develops relations with the Kurds as well the Arabs. Therefore, in this context while Iraqi Shiite and Sunni representatives have been visiting Turkey for years, the Kurds should not be dealt with as an exception.

However, Barzani’s visit cannot be reduced to the balances within Iraq or visits by political figures. That is because, the possibility of Iraq’s disintegration, which became the subject of many National Security Council meeting, still poses a question as one of Turkey’s main security problems. Then the question is: what is the change and continuity in Turkey’s policies towards the Iraqi Kurds? There is no change in Turkey’s strategic outlook toward Iraq. Turkey clearly and explicitly stands for Iraq’s territorial integrity, maybe more than any other state in the region. The second unchanged issue is that one pillar in Turkey’s struggle against the PKK is within the Iraqi territory. Within this context, the Trilateral Mechanism is still working and the contribution of the Iraqi Kurds to this mechanism is indispensible. The third unchanged issue is providing better living conditions and satisfactory political representation for the Turkmens in Iraq.

The point that has changed is that Turkey started to change its method of maintaining its relations with the Iraqi Kurds. A new approach, which aims to foster constructive relations in the long run by promoting issues of cooperation, especially in the economic sphere, rather than creating further tension by discussing in the media has been developed. Turkey’s approach has been met with the Iraqi Kurds manner which no longer contains provoking elements such as it did between 2003-2007. At this point it should be emphasized that both Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds need each other.

However, the most important point within the understanding that triggered the recent developments is that the worsening relations between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds present an anomaly. Turkey’s worsening relations with the Iraqi Kurds, with whom Turkey had the best level of relations for years, is out of the context of Turkey’s Middle East policy in a general sense. Evaluating the issue in this framework, it is being thought that while Turkey develops relations with other groups in Iraq, it is wrong to keep the Kurds out of this process. Moreover, if Turkey keeps the Iraqi Kurds away from itself, they might get closer to another country. This perspective might be another dimension of the strategic moves by turkey in the recent years.

Those points can be said on why it is important for Turkey to develop relations with the Iraqi Kurds:

- Preventing PKK’s terrorist activities through developing a realist and sincere cooperation in the struggle against it.

-Providing stability in Iraq by establishing the political balances.

-Developing Iraq’s energy resources; contributing to Turkey’s utilization of the energy resources and its position as an energy bridge in the Middle East.

- Further advancing Turkey-Iraq economic relations.

From the perspectives of the Iraqi Kurds, those points underline the importance of developing relations with Turkey:

- According to the intellectuals and most of the political figures among the Iraqi Kurds, Turkey is the gate for the Iraqi Kurds to the wider world.

- Turkey’s secular and democratic character is an only example for the Iraqi Kurds in the region considering their political experience over the years.

- In any possible scenario of Iraq descending into chaos after the US withdrawal, Turkey is the only country that the Kurds can rely on.

- Turkey is the only country that is able to contribute to the shrewd economic dynamism provided by the oil incomes in the Northern Iraq. It is a possible venue for integration with the international economic system and markets as well as a supporter for regional construction.

It is possible to say that the visit is more important for the Kurds than it is for Turkey. That is because the Kurds are in a difficult period in Iraq. They have lost their power in the domestic politics of Iraq and they are seeking for support. The loss of power has for primary causes, alongside many auxiliary factors. The first cause is the power struggle within the Kurds themselves. The second cause is the participation and strengthening of political forces, which had boycotted the political process in the past. The third cause is that the external support (especially the USA) for the Kurds has relatively declined. The fourth cause is the probability of isolation that the Kurds face within the instability in the post election period due to problems with the central government on the issues of Kirkuk and oil and with the Sunni Arabs in the north.  The Iraqi Kurds are well aware that they will face difficulties due to the new setting in the parliament, the new security environment after the US withdrawal, possible armed clashes and loss of political power. In such an environment, Turkey’s approach favoring close relations with the Iraqi Kurds is an important opportunity for them. It is observed that in this context Turkey prefers close relations with all groups, rather than siding with centralization proponents and anti-Kurd groups, and pursuing a strong anti-Kurd policy.

Expectations from the Visit and the Future of the Relations

Despite the positive trend in the relations between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds and the atmosphere that Massoud Barzani’s visit created, there are still some problems and concrete steps had not yet been taken. Firstly, the Iraqi Kurds have not yet taken a concrete and constructive step in the struggle against the terrorist group PKK and they do not intend to do so. Secondly, important political figures among the Iraqi Kurds state that they want to get separated from Iraq “when it is the time”. These two issues show that the strategic outlook of Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds are still incompatible. However, it might be possible that these differences will be resolved through the development of relations and cooperation in time.

It is declared that Massoud Barzani will have talks with the President, the Prime Minister and the Minister of Foreign Affairs. The synergy that the visit might create could be useful in overcoming obstacles and deadlocks in bilateral relations, and the development of mutual trust. However, the Iraqi Kurds’ perception of Turkey has to change in order to move towards that end. Some articles and assessments in the media close to KDP give important hints about how the Iraqi Kurds or the Administration perceives the visit.

For some time, those papers publish some articles that state the reasons behind Barzani’s visit as the intention of the Turkish government to win IKRG’s support in solving the Kurdish problem. According to those articles, the problems between Turkey and IKRG are caused by the developments and balances in Turkey’s domestic politics and Turkey’s policies towards the Kurds living in Turkey. Those articles suggest that the recent change in Turkey’s policies are caused by the Turkish government’s “challenge against the military regime” and move towards the Kurds with the democratic opening project.  The continuation of those perceptions among the Iraqi Kurds shows that different groups give different meanings to developments. For this reason, the visit should contribute to a change in the perceptions of the Iraqi Kurdish politicians and intellectuals, as an outcome.

The positive atmosphere might be constrained by the continuation of Iraqi Kurds’ old approaches on the issues of the Kurdish problem and Kirkuk. In this context, it is vital for the future of the relations that the expectations from the visit and its causes must be assessed in a rightful and careful manner. Turkey’s emphasis on economic relations and soft power in its foreign policy increase the role of the time factor in the overcoming of those problems. Therefore, it should not be expected that the differences will be completely transcended in a short time. However, with slow but steady steps this visit might prove to be a historic step for better relations in the future. Otherwise, the visit will not have any difference from the previous meetings.

»» Associate Professor Serhat Erkmen, ORSAM Middle East Advisor, Ahi Evran University, Department of International Relations