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İstanbul’s official population expected to exceed 15 million in 2023
Ankara is expected to officially have 5.5 million, İzmir 4.5 million and Bursa 3.4 million residents in 2023. Turkey’s population is expected to be 81-83 million in 2023, when birth rates will decline and migration to the West will make western cities more crowded. While there will be an increase in the population of 49 provinces by 2023, 32 provinces will see declines, the study forecast.
When it comes to tourism hubs, Antalya is expected to have 2.6 million residents in 2023, compared to its 1.9 million population today, while Muğla’s population will increase to 1 million from its current 800,000 and Aydın’s population of 1 million will rise to 1.2 million.
The provinces of Adana and Mersin, which have been receiving a high number of migrants from eastern Turkey, are expected to have 2.1 and 1.7 million residents, respectively, by 2023.
Regionally attractive provinces Şanlıurfa and Gaziantep are expected to have 2 million residents each while Diyarbakır, Konya, Kayseri and Trabzon are expected to have 1.7 million, 2.1 million, 1.4 million and 752,000 residents, respectively.
On the other hand, some provinces are expected to experience further population declines due to migration. The population of Sivas is expected to drop as low as 497,000, followed by 483,000 in Erzurum, 238,000 in Muş, 290,000 in Yozgat, 215,000 in Kars and 77,000 in Ardahan. Turkey’s least populated province of Bayburt, which has 75,000 residents, is expected to decline to 49,000 by 2023. However, Tunceli, which is the second-least populated province, is expected to have a surge and grow to 95,000 residents.
Türkyılmaz told the Anatolia news agency that internal migration in Turkey will continue, especially from the Eastern, Central Anatolian and Black Sea regions due to security reasons.
He also said that by 2023, birth rates in İstanbul will start to decline and that İstanbul would not have a population increase without migration.
Birth rates will decline in Turkey, but not as much as in Europe, 17-18 percent of whose population is elderly. In Turkey, people who are older than 65 are expected to be close to 10 percent of the population by 2023.
He added that the important factor for Turkey is not the quantity of the population but its quality.
“What would change if Turkey had a population of 100 million? We should look at factors such as how many of those people are university graduates, the rate of women’s employment, rates of unemployment and so on,” he said.
Türkyılmaz said there will be lower infant mortality, more education of women and increased higher education rates. However, he added, people who are forced to migrate to urban areas and live on the outskirts of big cities will suffer other problems.
He noted that population projections are affected by three factors: birth, death and migration. He added that the first two factors are not so hard to predict, but migration patterns vary. The study is based on the Address Based Population Registration System (ADNKS) data from 2007-2008.
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