PM Erdoğan to tackle visas, price of gas and Nagorno-Karabakh on visit to Baku

Erdoğan’s last visit took place almost exactly one year ago, on May 13, a time of growing anger both within the Azerbaijani government and among the public over Turkey’s move to reconcile with Armenia, a move that was also to include the possible opening of their border, closed since 1993 in a sign of solidarity with Azerbaijan following Armenia’s invasion and subsequent occupation of Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh territory. Opening the border is considered a blow to Azerbaijani-led economic sanctions against Armenia over its occupation of some 20 percent of its territory. Azerbaijan deliberately seeks to orchestrate regional energy and cooperation projects in a way that bypasses Armenia and thus deprives the small and poor country economically. The policy has produced few results so far.

Azerbaijani-Turkish relations rest on the solid base of deep historical and cultural roots. Being strategic partners, Azerbaijan and Turkey pursue their national interests without disregarding each other’s problems.

Azerbaijan believes Turkey’s inclusion of finding a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem as a catalyst in making progress on the protocols is the most valuable step for Azerbaijan. This view was absent when Turkey started the reconciliation process and became more conspicuous after Azerbaijan expressed its disapproval. Azerbaijanis regard the speech Erdoğan gave before Azerbaijan’s parliament a year ago as a plainly worded agreement and an unbreakable pledge to his “brethren” in the South Caucasus. He said Turkey would never open its border with Armenia unless there were a notable breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

Evaluating the prime minister’s visit to Baku as a symbolic victory over Armenian efforts to proclaim April 24 a memorial day commemorating Armenians killed during World War I, Soltanov says the heaviest repercussions of this were avoided, ones which could have the potential to worsen relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Because they were avoided, a sense of optimism is generating new momentum in Turkey and Azerbaijan to resolve some issues of mutual benefit prior to this window of opportunity starting to gradually close as next the April 24 approaches, he says.

Recalling Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Turkey and negotiations over a gas deal, Soltanov said that because there is little to talk about concerning the South Stream, which is seen as the main alternative to Nabucco, Turkey and Azerbaijan have avoided facing an additional hurdle in any possible gas deal between them. “There will definitely be positive statements regarding Nabucco,” Soltanov said. However, the analyst thinks this will have no benefit for the Nabucco deal because the fate of the project is not determined by Azerbaijani-Turkish cooperation alone.

Speaking to Sunday’s Zaman, Elman Nasirov, the deputy director of the Center of Geostrategic Investigation within the Academy of Public Administration under the Presidency of the Republic of Azerbaijan, said Erdoğan’s visit to Baku will likely be remembered for the natural gas deal and visa agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkey. The expert said lifting visa requirements was delayed because of technical problems on the Azerbaijani side and that it is very likely that these problems will be solved during this visit.

Speaking about the visa imbroglio between Azerbaijan and Turkey, Soltanov said if Azerbaijan and Turkey are “one nation in two states,” then this brotherhood should not lag behind in terms of cooperation. “One nation in two states may sound hollow in light of how Turks and Russians, definitely two separate nations, seem to be in a much better position both regarding mutual trust and concrete mutually beneficial deals,” the expert noted. He expects Russian-Turkish deals to create extra pressure on the part of Turkey and Azerbaijan to move forward and to show that they are capable of doing at least as much regarding cooperation. In other words, a visa deal between Azerbaijan and Turkey is very likely to be struck.

Prime Minister Erdoğan and Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan had a historic bilateral meeting in Washington on the sidelines of a nuclear summit in April to seek ways to rescue the protocols. Azerbaijan was not invited to the summit, which further deteriorated Azerbaijan’s relations with the Obama administration. Erdoğan is also expected to brief Azerbaijani President İlham Aliyev about his meeting with Sarksyan.