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Ignoring grass roots’ demand for reform may prove costly to MHP, BDP
For its part, the BDP said it could back the reforms if the government took its demands, such as lowering the 10 percent election threshold, into consideration and include them in the package. When the BDP's demands were not included in the package, the party refused to lend its support.
The CHP and the BDP are boycotting the voting, which started on Monday, while the MHP attending but voting against the articles.
A survey conducted by the Ankara-based MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center in early April revealed that nearly 31 percent of MHP voters said they would vote in favor of the package if a referendum were held. This figure is rather high considering the party's staunch opposition to the government's efforts for constitutional change. More than 58 percent of BDP supporters said they would vote “yes” if a referendum were held on the package.
According to Hasan Celal Güzel, a former politician and a columnist for the Radikal daily, the opposition parties will understand they were wrong in standing against the reform package when they see that an overwhelming majority of the nation, nearly 60 percent, support the amendments in a referendum.
At least 367 votes are required to approve a constitutional amendment. Any constitutional change supported by more than 330 and less than 367 deputies can be taken to a referendum. The AK Party has 336 deputies, but the parliament speaker can't cast a vote. Under these circumstances, a referendum is likely to be held on the package as less than 367 deputies are casting votes in favor of it.
“The BDP and MHP's opposition to the package in contradiction with their grass roots is against their interests. I think votes for the MHP will fall below 15 percent and votes for the BDP will fall below 6 percent in the upcoming general elections. Every political party that has opposed democratic progress later paid the cost for their attitude,” Güzel told Sunday's Zaman in a phone interview.
He also noted that these parties were repeating the mistakes of the Democrat Party (DP) and Motherland Party (ANAVATAN), which did not attend the presidential voting sessions in 2007 despite their grass roots' demands and later failed to enter Parliament.
During the presidential election, former DP leader Mehmet Ağar dissuaded the Erkan Mumcu-led ANAVATAN from attending the parliamentary sessions to elect the president, thereby creating a crisis. The ruling AK Party decided to hold early elections, resulting in the two parties being defeated in the parliamentary elections of July 22, 2007. Analysts interpreted the public withdrawing their support from these parties as “punishment” for acting in a way that ran contrary to the will of their supporters.
The MHP and the BDP will have difficulty explaining their opposition to the reforms to their supporters when election time comes, said Star's Mehmet Altan, a columnist for the Star daily.
“The party administration opposes the package for various reasons, but the public supports them. I really do not understand why these parties are acting this way. By refusing to lend any support to the package, these parties are supporting the Sept. 12 regime. I also have not seen any efforts by them to expand the scope of the package,” complained Altan.
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