Speaking at a conference organized by the Automotive Exporters’ Union (OİB) in the western province of Bursa late on Wednesday, Roubini said Turkey has started to break free of the adverse impact of the global economic recession, just like the rest of the world. The economies will experience a U-shaped recovery, he predicted, explaining that advanced economies in particular will take more time to return to pre-crisis levels.
Developing markets, however, Roubini said, will enjoy a rapid recovery. He cited Turkey as one of the most successful countries in this regard. “The recovery of the Turkish economy will be faster than the US or European economies,” he said, warning however against possible inflationist pressure if interest rates remain at low levels for a long time. Roubini predicted that the Turkish economy will grow at a rate of around 4 to 6 percent in the first half of the year and foresees the country continuing to bounce back from the crisis rapidly throughout the year, in contrast to the situation in the US and Europe, where he anticipates the economies to grow at decreasing rates during the year.
Roubini said Turkey had strengthened its banking sector and established a strong financial program after enduring a financial crisis in 2001. Learning its lessons from previous crises, Turkey absorbed the adverse impacts of the global economic crisis and managed to keep itself far from the turmoil, he said. “If Greece and some other EU countries could have done the same, they would not be in the gloomy position that they find themselves in today,” he added.
Since the EU is one of Turkey’s major trading partners and the union is not expected to enjoy high growth rates in the near future, there still remain some risks for the country’s exports, he said, though expressing optimism over the medium and long-term outlook of the Turkish economy. The diversification of export markets, by including the Middle East and the Caucasus, is of great importance for Turkey in this regard, Roubini said. But he asserted that the economy is still in need of serious reforms in various fields.
