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[NEWS ANALYSIS] Negotiating table likely to bring Eroğlu down to earth
The main theme in Eroğlu’s electioneering was his objection to single sovereignty for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC), which is recognized only by Turkey, and his insistence on accepting anything apart from a two-state solution when he sits at the negotiating table with the Greek Cypriot side, a theme reflecting a stance that runs counter to the principle of shared sovereignty, an inherent parameter of the UN-backed negotiations.
The principle is strongly embraced by Ankara, which has put the emphasis on “the current process ... within the framework of established UN parameters and joint statements of leaders” in official statements, making it clear that the negotiations should be continued after the election.
Describing Eroğlu as “a leader with a vast experience in statecraft” in a written statement released on Sunday after midnight, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said it “commends Eroğlu’s determination to resume the UN comprehensive settlement negotiations,” once more highlighting its priorities.
The priorities of Ankara, whose bid to join the European Union is closely linked with a settlement in Cyprus, which has been divided since 1974, as well as the KKTC’s economic dependence on Turkey are seen as two key factors that will eventually push Eroğlu to soften his stance at the negotiating table.
According to Mete Tümerkan, the head of the Cyprus Turkish Journalists Association, Eroğlu’s term in office will not be a bed of roses because almost one out of two electors voted for Talat, and thus for pro-settlement policies, and he will eventually have to heed these voters’ concerns.
“In addition to other aspects, this picture will be another factor that will force him to soften his stance regarding negotiations,” Tümerkan told Today’s Zaman on Monday, referring to the unofficial final results which showed Eroğlu winning 50.38 percent of the vote, with Talat garnering 42.85 percent.
“Overall, in my opinion, Eroğlu hasn’t had any intention of resisting Ankara’s stance. He is an experienced politician who knows that the Cyprus cause cannot be defended without Ankara’s support. His electioneering discourse was a necessary response to the electorate’s expectations,” Tümerkan said.
Başaran Düzgün, editor-in-chief of the Turkish Cypriot newspaper Havadis, has reservations on the extent to which Eroğlu may tone down his stance because of “the bloc” he was supported by during the campaign.
The bloc he referred to is composed of Rauf Denktaş, a former president who worked for decades with Eroğlu’s National Unity Party (UBP) during his time in power and who opposed a federal solution in Cyprus, insisting on the recognition of the KKTC’s sovereign rights, and Serdar Denktaş, Rauf Denktaş’s son who heads the Democrat Party (DP).
“Eroğlu’s dependence on this bloc has grown because a new government will have to be established in the upcoming period, and he will still need their support then. He may remain between pressure from Ankara and this bloc,” Düzgün told Today’s Zaman on Monday.
When asked towards which side Eroğlu would lean at the end of the day, Düzgün replied: “The current signal from Eroğlu is that he will engage in a conflict with Ankara. However, he is a politician, and in the end he may say, ‘I will look forward from now on and will cooperate with Ankara’.”
Tümerkan doesn’t share Düzgün’s reservations, though. “Eroğlu will not need to continue cooperating with the Denktaş bloc after becoming president since responding to the expectations of this bloc will be an issue for the government, but not for him,” he said.
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