Turkish Cypriots go to polls today to decide fate of talks

    Greek Cyprus, Turkey, Greece and the European Union are all keeping a close eye on the presidential election, bearing in mind the winner of the vote will also be the Turkish Cypriot negotiator in the reunification talks. Although there are seven candidates running for the presidency, the spotlight is on two of them, President Mehmet Ali Talat and Prime Minister Derviş Eroğlu. The polls show conservative politician Eroğlu is likely to win. To be elected as president, candidates have to secure 50 percent of the vote in the first round. Otherwise, the two top candidates will compete again in the second round.

Some analysts argue that President Talat would have the advantage if a second round is held. Eroğlu’s election will mean victory for the anti-solution camp both on the Turkish and Greek sides. On both sides of the island the dominant mood is that settlement cannot come in the hands of Eroğlu. This is already the expectation among the people who will vote for Eroğlu. When asked the reason why they don’t support the settlement efforts, they reply, “Did it make any difference with Talat being pro-settlement?” People can readily see that settlement does not hinge upon either Eroğlu or Talat being at the helm.

The policy that the Greek Cypriots will pursue in the event of Eroğlu’s election is obvious. They will launch a concentrated lobbying campaign in the international community, trumpeting that Eroğlu is against settlement. Eroğlu has already played significantly into the hands of the Greek Cypriots. The Greek Cypriots will demand that negotiations continue where they were left. This means “bi-zonal bi-communal federation.”

By putting the emphasis on “the current process ... within the framework of established UN parameters and joint statements of leaders” in official statements, Turkey has made clear that the negotiations should be continued after the election. In placing particular focus on the “joint statements of the leaders,” Turkey is stressing to Eroğlu that he cannot backpedal from the points agreed upon during the negotiations. Since it is very unlikely for Eroğlu to run counter to Ankara, he has no option but to abide by this framework. Thus, it can be said that hard times await Eroğlu if he makes it to the top. He will have to run the gauntlet of continuing with negotiations based on parameters he does not advocate and at the same, not give the impression of being an obstacle to settlement.

If Talat is re-elected, negotiations will continue. This is also the option favorable to Turkey as the Turkish side will be able to champion the thesis that they “are always one step ahead for settlement.” Since Talat is known to be more pro-settlement than Eroğlu, this result will send an important message to the international community. While overall any settlement seems unlikely, the Turkish Cypriots and Ankara expect to maintain their gains.

Unemployment, not Cyprus issue, is decisive

While one may expect that the candidates’ visions about the settlement of the Cyprus issue should play a decisive role in voters’ preferences, this is not the case. Popular opinion is that the candidate from the ruling party would be more advantageous because the president’s sole duty is to conduct the negotiations and he has no inside influence. The government’s candidate, on the other hand, can attract more votes by recruiting personnel to public organizations, and so on. Supporters from both sides accept this. There is very little interest in the elections. People believe that whoever is elected, Turkey will still be in charge.

Greeks’ salvation plan: Eroğlu

The Greek Cypriots are intently monitoring developments concerning the elections. In the south of the island, there is visible panic attributable to the latest decision of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) establishing that the Turkish Cypriot authorities are authorized to deal with property complaints from Greek Cypriots, as well as the growing prospects for adoption at the European Parliament of a proposal calling for direct trade with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC). What will save Greek Cyprus from the dire straits they are in from having dragged their feet in the negotiation process is a win by Eroğlu. Indeed, Eroğlu will sit at the negotiating table with a different approach for peace talks from Talat. The Greek side is planning to say Eroğlu is an “anti-talk” leader. The discourse and phrases used by Eroğlu will be brought into the spotlight among European circles. According to the Greek side, the general perception in Europe is that Talat works towards a settlement while Eroğlu tends to stymie efforts to this end.

What do the candidates say?

Talat: Eroğlu has no vision to negotiate

Although he is several points behind his rival, this has not destroyed Talat’s determination. He believes that his chance will increase as “the Cyprus issue will weigh more heavily than party politics as the election nears.” He says the recent decision of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) on property rights, the increased chances for a discussion in the European Union on a direct trade proposal with Turkish Cyprus and the boosted international prestige of the Turkish side are the successes his pro-settlement policy has achieved. Concerning the suggestions that the negotiations with be halted if Eroğlu wins, he says: “Eroğlu has no vision for settlement. Therefore, negotiations will end and the Turkish side will be blamed for it.” When asked whether Turkey’s suggestions will be effective on Eroğlu, Talat continued to criticize his rival: “Of course, Turkey will tell him to go. And Eroğlu will not leave the table. But Turkey cannot be sure of what he will do at the table. Turkey will not be there. It will be Eroğlu who will conduct the negotiations. Since Eroğlu does not have any vision for negotiations, it does not make any difference if Turkey makes any suggestions to Eroğlu. When the negotiations are halted, the responsibility for it will obviously be placed on the Turkish side.”

Eroğlu: I am determined to continue the negotiations

KKTC Prime Minister Eroğlu has the advantage in the elections. He is ahead of his rival, according to the surveys. He strongly denies the claims that he will backpedal from the negotiations. Speaking to Sunday’s Zaman, he underlined that he will not walk away from the negotiating table. He also pointed out that he will be in consultation with the motherland, Turkey. As to his likelihood of working in harmony with Turkey, he said: “Of course, I will consult Turkey during the negotiations. As the KKTC cannot exist without Turkey, an agreement unacceptable to Turkey cannot be made.”