Cyprus talks, Turkey's European Union bid at stake in KKTC polls

Prime Minister Derviş Eroğlu, who calls for equal sovereign rights for Turkish Cypriots, is likely to win by a large margin, according to surveys. Some polls even point to him winning the election in the first round, winning at least 50 percent of the vote. Eroğlu says he will continue talks with the Greek Cypriots if elected, but many say the negotiations may not last long since he is unlikely to change his opposition to a federal state in which the sovereignty is shared between Turkish and Greek Cypriots.

According to his rival, incumbent President Mehmet Ali Talat, talks will collapse almost immediately if Eroğlu is elected because the principle of shared sovereignty is an inherent parameter of the UN-backed negotiations.

“It is clear from the candidates' platforms that a victory for incumbent Mehmet Ali Talat will make it easier and quicker to reach a deal on a true federal state,” stated Hugh Pope, the Turkey/Cyprus project director at the International Crisis Group.

Turkey's bid to join the European Union is closely linked with a settlement in Cyprus, divided since 1974. The 27-nation bloc suspended accession negotiations with Ankara on eight of 35 policy chapters in 2006 due to Turkey's refusal to open its ports and airports to traffic from Greek Cyprus, which joined the EU right after rejecting a UN plan to reunite the island in 2004. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who recently visited Ankara, urged progress in the stalemate over the ports issue, suggesting that unless progress occurs Turkey's accession bid was unlikely to advance any further.

The EU says Turkey is obligated to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot traffic under a 2005 agreement; Ankara wants the EU first to end its international isolation of the KKTC, as it promised in 2004, when the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the UN plan to reunite the island. In the absence of a deal in Cyprus, the Greek Cypriots, representing the entire island in the EU, are blocking further progress in Turkey’s accession talks to force Ankara to make concessions in Cyprus. Turkey has about 30,000 troops on the island and says they will remain there until a deal securing the rights and safety of the Turkish Cypriots is reached.

Now many fear Greek Cypriot leader Dimitris Christofias, who has had more than 70 rounds of negotiations on the reunification of Cyprus with Talat, will walk away from the talks, telling the international supporters of a settlement on the island that it is not possible to reach any deal with Eroğlu, known to be a hard-liner and follower of former Turkish Cypriot President Rauf Denktaş’ uncompromising policy.

Stefanos Stefanou, spokesperson for the Greek Cypriot administration, said this week there might be an international campaign that highlights Eroğlu’s opposition stance if he is elected.

Although Eroğlu seems to be well ahead of Talat, polls also point to widespread indifference among Turkish Cypriots, thus leaving the door open for a surprise result if the uncommitted voters choose to go to the ballot boxes at the last minute and support Talat.

Talat says the choice will be between “yesterday and the world,” meaning that a win for Eroğlu will bring back the old days of international isolation while his re-election will keep the KKTC on the path for integration with the outside world.

Eroğlu, on the other hand, says he will not end talks as Talat claims but accuses Talat of making too many concessions in talks with the Greek Cypriots.

164,000 voters in Northern Cyprus

KKTC Higher Electoral Board Chairman Nevvar Nolan said the 164,072 eligible voters could cast their ballots at 629 polling stations in Lefkoşa, Gazimagusa, Girne, Güzelyurt and İskele from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

“Some 2,000 officials will begin counting votes immediately after the closing of the polls. Accordingly, unofficial results will be available as of 7:00 p.m. People will be able to see the distribution of votes on a Web site we prepared in cooperation with Near East University,” Nolan added.

If any candidate cannot reach the required threshold of 50 percent in the first round, the second round will be held on April 25 between the two candidates who received the highest number of votes in the first round.

Talat: Cyprus talks will collapse if Eroğlu wins  Eroğlu vows not to walk away from the negotiating table