Prime Minister Erdoğan, CHP’s Baykal meeting likely to prove futile

The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which earlier criticized the timing of the package, is now raising objections to the content of the package. The MHP will be campaigning for a “no” against the package if it is referred to a referendum.

The CHP initially offered to vote on the proposed amendments introducing changes to the structure of the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) separately from the other articles in the package. However, it continued to put forward new objections and make new proposals, which were perceived by the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) as an effort to stonewall the referendum process.

The meeting, which was planned before both parties made statements indicating that a consensus is not possible, will take place on April 19, but the meeting is not likely to yield any positive results, as both Erdoğan and Baykal made clear in their statements that an agreement is impossible.

Prior to his visit to the US this week, Erdoğan said he was open to Baykal’s proposal to vote on the content of the package in three parts. However, Baykal later said his party believed it would be better to take up the package after the general elections in 2011, leading Erdoğan to change his stance. Speaking to journalists at the airport shortly after his arrival from the US on Wednesday, Erdoğan said he was ready to have Baykal visit him at AK Party headquarters but noted that he was pessimistic about any concrete results, saying: “These are all attempts to water down the package. This is not a serious approach. It is impossible for us to handle an issue that matters so much to us in such a way. The package has already passed the commission, and now the General Assembly will take it up. They [the CHP] noted their reservations and submitted them. If those visiting us are doing that to contribute, we are ready to talk about their offers, but they should not try to play any tricks. Our door is open to everyone; we are engaging in politics here.”

Baykal’s Brussels statement

One of the major blows to a potential agreement came when Baykal made a statement on the package in Brussels, where he was invited by the kindred Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament. Baykal announced that his party planned to appeal the package at the Constitutional Court. His words were instantly criticized by AK Party Deputy Chairman and spokesman Hüseyin Çelik, who said Baykal’s statement showed the insincerity of his party’s earlier proposal to seek consensus on the package. He also recalled that Baykal had earlier stated that the current Parliament is not eligible to make a new constitution but then had proposed voting on the package by dividing it into parts. “I think Baykal is doing some tactical maneuvers. I do not trust Baykal and the CHP’s sincerity on this issue.”

Past the point of no return

The package has been referred to the General Assembly of Parliament. Discussions on it will start next Monday. If Erdoğan and Baykal can reach an agreement, which is now only a remote possibility, changes can be made to it by dividing it into parts. However, it is unlikely that the AK Party will take those steps after this point.

Constitutional amendment proposals are voted on in two rounds in the General Assembly. Each vote is held 48 hours apart. The voting is confidential. In the first round, parties can make speeches before the vote, while there are no speeches in the second round. At least 330 votes in favor are necessary for the package to pass, in which case it would be referred to a public vote. At least 367 votes in favor are needed for the package to be enacted without a referendum.

MHP to vote against package

The MHP will be campaigning for nays against the package. Although the party administration has announced that they will not help the CHP take the package to the Constitutional Court, they will be urging voters to vote against the package. The MHP hopes that the CHP’s inconsistency regarding the package will harm its image in the eyes of the voters, which is likely to make the MHP the main opposition party in the next election. Senior members of the MHP believe that the public vote on the package is likely to trigger snap elections.