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Davutoğlu to avoid nuclear conference in Tehran amid pressure
The meeting is scheduled for April 17-18, just days after US President Barack Obama hosts a nuclear security summit of world leaders in Washington in which Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is expected to participate.
But, regarding the meeting in Tehran, a Turkish diplomatic source told Today’s Zaman that it is unlikely Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu will participate. “It is probable that a high-ranking official from the ministry will be there,” the same source indicated.
Tehran is hoping to get as many supportive countries as possible to attend its meeting, including China, which has resisted implementing sanctions on Iran over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. But a recent shift in the Chinese attitude on the issue has started to dominate news headlines, a shift which pundits say may increase even more the pressure Turkey already feels.
Ankara frequently underlines that it is against any sanctions being placed on its neighbor Iran, the second-largest gas supplier to Turkey and an important trade partner.
Turkey is a nonpermanent member of the United Nations Security Council and together with several other temporary members, namely Brazil and Lebanon, is against any sanctions. In order for a resolution to be passed, at least nine members need to support it and no permanent member of the council -- the US, China, Russia, Britain and France -- must veto it.
Once the five permanent members and Germany agree, they will present the proposal to the remaining 10 council members, but neither China nor Russia are expected to agree on tough sanctions.
The International Strategic Research Organization’s (USAK) Sedat Laçiner agrees that a possible shift in Chinese policy towards Iran makes the situation a little difficult for Turkey. “It appears that the US administration was able to convince China on the Iranian issue. It will be easier and less costly for Washington to convince Ankara, but instead of doing that, it is simply complaining while demanding that Ankara cooperate,” Laçiner told Today’s Zaman. He added that Turkey’s reluctance is understandable because its trade volume with Iran is around $10 billion and that any sanctions on Tehran will harm Turkey. Laçiner says those demanding Turkish cooperation should offer ways to compensate for Turkey’s losses.
Pundits also underline that Turkey’s vote at the UN Security Council will not change the result but that a possible vote against sanctions does have symbolic importance.
Bayram Sinkaya, an expert on Iran at the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), recalled that Turkey abstained during the November 2009 vote of a resolution passed by the International Atomic Agency (IAEA) censuring Iran for its uranium enrichment activities and referring the matter to the UN Security Council. He told Today’s Zaman that it is reasonable to think that Turkey will also abstain from a possible vote in the UN Security Council on a resolution envisaging sanctions against Iran.
“The scope of the sanctions will be very important. Russia and China will not be in favor of though sanctions and they will say ‘yes’ only to a limited degree. If they approve sanctions, it will be difficult for Turkey to oppose them,” he said.
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