Allawi win could curb Iran’s influence

The Iraqiya coalition led by Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite who has campaigned for better ties with the Arab world and keeping neighboring Iran at a distance, won 91 of the new legislature’s 325 seats, edging Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s mainly Shiite bloc by only two seats. Allawi was prime minister in 2004-05.

Meanwhile, six people were killed and 15 wounded when four roadside bombs exploded near the house of a member of an electoral coalition in Iraq’s western Anbar province, police said on Sunday. The bombs were placed near the house of Ghanim Radhi, a member of the Development and Reforms movement, in the town of Qaim, 300 kilometers (185 miles) west of Baghdad. The movement is a faction of Allawi’s secular Iraqiya list. The blast killed Radhi, who did not run in the election, and one of his brothers, police said.

Allawi’s narrow win foreshadowed possibly months of hard-nosed negotiations over the formation of a new government. But Allawi’s numerical victory was triumph enough for the mostly Sunni Arab regimes that have been wary of Shiite-dominated Iraqi governments since the 2003 US invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein.

Sunni Arab governments have long kept their distance from Iraq’s postwar governments. They have declined to send full ambassadors -- first because of the US occupation, then because of the precarious security and more recently because of their anger over perceived Iranian influence. But they have begun warming toward Iraq, and Allawi’s ascension would likely tip the balance.

The United States has long maintained that Iran was fomenting violence in Iraq. Washington charges that Tehran provides Shiite militiamen with money, weapons and training and blames the deaths of hundreds of American soldiers in Iraq on a particularly effective brand of roadside bomb it says is supplied by Iran.

US officials also claimed the banning by a Shiite-led vetting body of hundreds of candidates from running in the March 7 election for their alleged ties to the Saddam regime was inspired by Tehran. Many of those blacklisted were Sunni Arabs. Iran denies the allegations.

Significantly deepening the concern has been Iran’s disputed nuclear program and its alleged support for militant groups like Lebanon’s Hezbullah and the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza.

Iran has not officially commented on the election results, which were reported by the state-run news agency without comment. However, a senior lawmaker charged Saturday that Washington and Saudi Arabia had exerted their influence to get their favorite candidates elected.

“That’s why the Iraqi elections have definitely been rigged,” hard-line lawmaker Esmaeil Kowsari said.

Iran’s main challenge to the region -- building a sphere of influence extending from Iraq all the way to Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip -- makes any Iraqi leader with an anti-Iranian policy a favorite for Arab governments.

Although a Shiite, Allawi is no exception and has enjoyed friendly relations with Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates for years.

“Allawi will be able to strengthen Iraq’s relations with the Arab world and will also be able to initiate contacts and improve relations with countries in the region,” said Hani Horani, director of the New Jordan Research Center in Amman, Jordan. “He’s capable of establishing balanced relations with all Arab countries and reversing Iraq’s tendency to lean toward Iran.”

The Asharq al-Awsat newspaper headline, which reflected relief as much as joy, mirrors the thinking in Saudi Arabia on Allawi’s victory and al-Maliki’s potential departure. The daily is owned by powerful members of the Saudi royal family and religiously toes the oil-rich kingdom’s foreign policy line.

It is not certain at this point that Allawi will succeed al-Maliki as prime minister, but he stands a good chance if his bloc is able to join forces with enough other political groupings to gain an influential majority.

Even so, there are doubts over Allawi’s ability to end or greatly reduce the influence of Iran’s hard-line clerical regime, but sentiment against Tehran has been growing among ordinary Iraqis as well.