Poll shows nation disapproves of opposition's stance on reform

According to the poll -- conducted by Professor Özer Sencar, Dr. Sıtkı Yıldız and Dr. Ünal Bilir of the Ankara-based MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center on March 24 -- a full 61 percent of respondents said the Republican People's Party (CHP) was wrong in its disapproval of the package even before its content was revealed. When asked whether they agreed with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which says the package should be delayed until a new Parliament is formed after next parliamentary elections, 56.1 percent replied that they did not while 36 said they do. The poll was carried out with a representative sample of 1,010 people in 31 provinces in Turkey.

The package, announced on Monday, includes 26 amendments. The most contentious changes proposed are reforms to the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) and to the structure of the Constitutional Court. The government, which has been conferring with various NGOs and political parties, says it is open to suggestions on the package. However, the main opposition CHP has refused to raise any concrete objections. Instead, it has dismissed the package out of hand, calling it a government attempt to take over the judiciary, despite the fact that the European Union has urged Turkey to reform its judicial system. As for the MHP, it does not oppose the spirit of the package, but the party demands that the changes be delayed until a new Parliament is formed after next year's elections and that a compromise commission be formed to discuss the changes.

The respondents were asked for their opinion about the government's constitutional reform package. While nearly 44 percent of the participants said they found it positive, 39 percent found the package negative. The remaining 15.5 percent said they had no opinion.

The ruling AK Party vowed to introduce a new constitution when it first came to power in 2002, but it has failed to do so, mainly due to strong resistance by opposition parties.

Asked whether they would vote in favor of constitutional changes if a referendum were held, slightly more than 48 percent said yes. Thirty-eight percent, however, said they would vote against such reforms. The remaining 13 percent said they had no opinion. However, a survey conducted by MetroPOLL in early March, before the content of the package was announced, showed 66 percent of the respondents at the time said they would vote for the reforms while 20 percent said they would vote against them.

The AK Party cannot currently amend the Constitution by itself, as it has 337 seats in Parliament. According to the Constitution, constitutional changes that are voted for by more than 330 but less than 367 deputies should be taken to a public vote. The AK Party is determined to take the package to a public vote if it fails to be approved in Parliament.

Several different opinion polls have been conducted to learn what the nation would do in the event of a referendum. According to a recent survey conducted by PollMark of 5,039 people before the content of the package was announced, 41.5 percent of respondents said they would say yes to the government’s constitutional reform package if it goes to referendum, while 28.2 percent said they would decide according to the content of the package. Almost 60 percent of the respondents in the same survey also said Turkey needs a new constitution. Turkey’s current Constitution was drafted after the 1980 military coup and is criticized by many for falling short of democratic standards.

Content of package matters

The respondents participating in the MetroPOLL survey were also asked what would influence their vote if the reform package is taken to a public vote: the content of the package or the stance of the political party they support regarding the package. A total of 55 percent of those polled said the content would be the determining factor while 37 percent said the position of the party they support would determine their vote.

The government says the reforms are needed to curb the power of an entrenched judiciary and to bring Turkey closer to EU democratic standards. The 26-article bill also aims to make it harder to ban political parties and gives the president the power to appoint most of the Constitutional Court’s judges.

The EU has criticized Turkey’s Political Parties Law, under which almost 20 parties have been banned since the Constitution was adopted in 1982. The government also aims to curb the influence of the once-untouchable military, which along with the judiciary, is a stronghold of secularism.

The proposals include a measure to allow military personnel to be put on trial in civilian courts for crimes committed against the security of the state and the constitutional order. The government also proposes an amendment to strip leaders of the 1980 military coup of their immunity from prosecution.

The respondents were also asked about their opinions regarding the high judiciary’s strong criticism of the reform package. While 46 percent said they thought the judiciary is right in its opposition, 36 percent found the judiciary wrong in its criticisms.

When respondents were asked which party they would vote for if the general elections were held today, 36.3 percent said they would vote for the AK Party, a figure slightly lower than the 38.3 percent of the vote the party received in last year’s local elections. While 18.6 percent said they would vote for the CHP, 12.3 percent said they would vote for the MHP.