 |
Russia-Ukraine:
A sharp turn (2)
by
MARIA BEAT*
by
MARIA BEAT*
Nevertheless, friendly rhetoric doesn't seem to be enough for the restoration of Russian-Ukrainian relations. “Both of the parties agree that the existing relations have to be changed,” admitted President Viktor Yanukovich after his Moscow visit, “at large, in the context of the energy security problems that generate concern in Ukraine, Russia and the European Union. Our economies are tied to each other so closely today that creation of a common economic space has become an issue of the nearest future.”
Russia supports this proactive Ukrainian position and offers a ready scenario for development: “Join our customs union,” suggested Prime Minister Putin to President Yanukovich in the course of their meeting on March 5, referring to the Russia-masterminded customs union covering Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan that has been fully operational since Jan. 1, 2010.
The immediate future has to show how successful the new Ukrainian leadership proves to be in reigniting Ukraine-Russia relations, and the first test to pass will be the gas talks. Receiving a substantial reduction in gas prices from Russia is of paramount importance for Ukraine, since the country suffers from a huge budget deficit, while Ukraine's gas transportation system could become the trump card of President Yanukovich for negotiating such a reduction. Russia may react positively to the Ukrainian proposal of establishing an international consortium with its participation to jointly manage the system. While economically viable, the idea of having a venture with Russian Gazprom still has to be approved in Ukraine, while the current opposition leader Yulia Timoshenko is strongly against it.
Besides negotiating the anticipated gas price reduction, Ukraine has another burning issue on its agenda. That is Russia's planned construction of the South Stream pipeline to bypass Ukraine, which would deprive the Ukrainian gas transportation system to Europe of development potential to eventually make it economically redundant. On the other hand, if an international consortium to include the European Union, Russia and Ukraine is established, a sweeping modernization of the Ukrainian gas transportation system will become a logical follow-up, and eventually the transit of Russian gas deliveries to Europe free from bottlenecks and interruptions would be ensured. If that happens, construction of the South Stream pipeline at a skyrocketing price would lose its economic viability, since security of gas transportation would be jointly ensured by the EU, Russia and Ukraine.
As such, the present Ukrainian leadership faces a demanding task of persuading the Russian leadership to drop the high-profile plans for the South Stream construction or at least to modify them to meet Ukrainian expectations. The situation is greatly complicated by the fact that for Russia, all gas-related issues are closely tied up with the situation around the Russian language in Ukraine and the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol.
No doubt, newly elected President Yanukovich and his team face a demanding task. Besides rejuvenating relations with Russia, they have to make life better in Ukraine and in line with expectations enjoyed by the country's people. Regardless of his proactive Russian stance, Viktor Yanukovich is, first of all, a Ukrainian politician strongly relying on the support of the major Ukrainian industrialists, whose business interests could sometimes conflict with the interests of the Russian business elite in Ukraine. Apparently, keeping the balance will be the biggest challenge for Ukrainian President Yanukovich.
*Maria Beat is a journalist covering developments in the post-Soviet countries. Her e-mail address is mbeat2000@yahoo.com.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMANDA PAUL |  |
||
| Ukraine: a lost country | |||
| MÜMTAZER TÜRKÖNE |  |
||
| The 52nd anniversary of May 27 | |||
| ABDULLAH BOZKURT |  |
||
| Turkey and Mexico: Distant yet so close | |||
| BERİL DEDEOĞLU |  |
||
| Yemen and beyond | |||
| ARZU KAYA URANLI |  |
||
| On Memorial Day a few words to make your day memorable | |||
| ABDÜLHAMİT BİLİCİ |  |
||
| Google kidnaps Gül! | |||
| CUMALİ ÖNAL |  |
||
| Critical months for Egypt | |||
| DOĞU ERGİL |  |
||
| Qualities of power | |||
| İHSAN YILMAZ |  |
||
| The Egyptian elections, Islam and Islamists | |||
| EMRE USLU |  |
||
| Operational errors | |||
| MARKAR ESAYAN |  |
||
| There is need for a new initiative | |||
| JOOST LAGENDIJK |  |
||
| Europe can’t have it all. Or can it? | |||
| HASAN KANBOLAT |  |
||
| Are Russian tourists being discouraged from visiting Turkey? | |||
| MELİH ARAT |  |
||
| Handmade | |||
| KLAUS JURGENS |  |
||
| Back to the ’80s | |||
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
