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Iraqi PM Maliki fights for survival as votes are counted
“Maliki is fighting for his political life,” said Joost Hiltermann, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. “He may well come out of this no longer prime minister. He may lose the elections, that is how close it is.”
The prime minister, known as a hard-line Shiite during his first couple of years in power, has more recently transformed himself into a law-and-order nationalist who has occasionally reached out to minority Sunnis. While trying to re-establish a strong central government -- most notably by routing a Shiite militia that ruled parts of Baghdad and Iraq’s second-largest city, Basra -- Maliki has also alienated many key constituencies by governing with a heavy hand.
Maliki campaigned with all the benefits of incumbency: easy air time on national TV, the ability to dole out favors to local officials in exchange for their support, and a record of helping stop some of the country’s violence.
But the political bloc loyal to Maliki has only a slim lead over the secular coalition led by Ayad Allawi, a Shiite who himself was prime minister from 2004 to 2005.
Allawi’s anti-Iran rhetoric -- and the many Sunnis in his Iraqiya coalition -- earned him Sunni support in Baghdad and in Sunni-dominated provinces such as Anbar and Salahuddin.
Maliki has been doing well in the Shiite south as well as in Baghdad, a city of 6 million people accounting for almost a fifth of the 325 parliament seats.
With about 12 million votes cast in the March 7 election, the prime minister’s coalition has about a 40,000-vote lead over Allawi and is ahead in more provinces -- an important factor considering that parliament seats are divided by province and not by the overall vote count.
The process of choosing the next prime minister could take months -- a situation which could invite violence at a time when the United States has vowed to stick to President Barack Obama’s timetable that calls for the withdrawal of combat forces by late summer and all American troops by the end of next year.
Once election results are final and the parliament is seated, the lawmakers will elect a new president. The president then tasks the bloc with the largest number of seats to form a majority government.
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