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Prime minister Maliki leads in Iraqi capital, a big election prize
Maliki’s State of Law coalition is leading among three top rivals as electoral officials slowly release initial figures.
A cross-sectarian, secularist list headed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi is running second, and INA, a rival to Maliki among Iraq’s Shiite majority, is a close third. Maliki also had a wide lead in early results from the southern oil hub of Basra. The city will be at the heart of huge oilfield development projects by foreign firms. Maliki’s had 219,657 votes compared to 121,497 for a fellow Shiite list, the Iraqi National Alliance, which has close ties to Iran.
Politicians promised the parliamentary election would bring better governance and security as the United States prepares to end combat operations seven years after ousting Saddam Hussein.
With just 18 percent of the count completed in Baghdad, analyst Hazem al-Nuaimi cautioned against reading too much into Saturday’s results. It is unclear which parts of the capital, largely segregated along sectarian lines after the killing unleashed in 2003, the early votes represent.
“It is clear that the final votes will be distributed among the blocs closely,” Nuaimi said. “This means there will no winning bloc with a big margin.”
Days after the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) expected to release full initial results, Maliki’s coalition led in five provinces.
Allawi’s Iraqiya list was ahead by wide margins in three provinces home to large numbers of minority Sunnis, eager to change the Shiite-led government they feel has mistreated them since 2003. The INA is ahead in two provinces in the Shiite south, while powerful Kurdish parties led as expected in Arbil.
Coalition-building
Even before a clear national picture had emerged, the political maneuvering was under way. Mindful that minority Kurds may prove kingmakers, Allawi held talks with Masoud Barzani, the leader of Iraqi Kurdistan.
“I came here to talk with the Kurdish leadership and with my brother the president. We share the same point of view for what should happen in Iraq regarding stability,” Allawi said. Lawmaker Hassan al-Sunaid, a senior member of Maliki’s Dawa Party, said the State of Law coalition was also talking with the Kurds and would hold discussions with other winning alliances.
“It is obvious that neither our bloc nor any other one will get the majority in this vote to form the government alone,” he said. “But through alliances, a majority will be reached.”
Theories abound about possible alliances, based both on vote results and on chemistry between leading figures like Maliki and Allawi. It is still too early to say whose interests may align.
The stakes are high. After 2005 polls, sectarian violence erupted as politicians took months to form a government.
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