Turkey’s readiness for major quake questioned in wake of Elazığ disaster

The Elazığ quake was not one of the strongest in Turkey’s history, but it was strong enough to claim the lives of 41 people, all of whom were residing in mud-brick buildings. The heavy toll has spurred experts to discuss what Turkey would do in the event of a stronger temblor.

    According to most experts, Turkey’s readiness for a future disaster remains a mystery though over a decade has passed since the 1999 Marmara earthquake, which killed over 17,000 people and left thousands homeless. All eyes are currently on İstanbul, which is home to almost 15 million people and is considered the heart of the Turkish economy. A major quake in the city would bring financial turmoil that Turkey would not be able to overcome for many years. İstanbul Mayor Kadir Topbaş has announced that his municipality is currently working on an urban transformation project that aims to strengthen buildings in the city against the risk of a strong quake. “An earthquake in İstanbul would set Turkey back several years.

It would not be easy for Turkey to stand upright if a major quake hits İstanbul,” he warned, and disclosed his municipality’s plans for earthquake readiness. “We have thus far placed many devices on different points that would cut off natural gas circulation in the city in the event of an earthquake. We have constructed 101 helipads for helicopters. If a quake happens, ferryboats will serve as sailing hospitals. Around 75,000 citizens have received training on how to put out fires and help the injured. The number of firefighters has increased from 292 to 581 in five years. We have spent more than TL 1 billion for quake readiness,” he remarked.

According to experts, however, Turkey’s quake risk is not restricted to İstanbul, and the country as a whole does not seem to be ready for a major tremor. Turkey lies on two major fault lines and has had 90 earthquakes greater than magnitude 5.0 since 1903.

The Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen’s Foundation’s (TÜSİAV) Salim Taşçı remarked that mud-brick buildings constitute up to 75 percent of the buildings in Turkey’s villages. The fact that concrete construction survived the Elazığ quake with little damage served to highlight the inadequacy of mud-brick buildings.

“Mud-brick buildings are very dangerous. They should be demolished immediately, and new buildings that are resistant to earthquakes should be constructed,” Taşçı noted.

State officials also acknowledged earlier this week that mud-brick homes are not earthquake resilient.

“Those buildings are constructed with the technology of 60 years ago. Even a magnitude 4.0 quake would destroy mud-brick houses,” cautioned Taşçı. He also complained that Turkey did not learn lessons from the 1999 earthquake.

“Buildings are still not constructed in a way to protect residents against a quake. The Housing Development Administration of Turkey [TOKİ] should start ‘construction mobilization’ in at least 50 or 60 Turkish cities. Buildings should be earthquake resilient. Earthquake crisis centers should be set up in every city. Earthquake experts should be employed at municipalities,” he added.

The Ministry of Public Works and Settlement held a meeting in 2004 with scientists, construction companies and bureaucrats to discuss Turkey’s readiness for a major quake. The meeting resulted in the preparation of a “warning” report against mud-brick construction. The report cautioned that a minor earthquake, even a magnitude 5.2, would damage many mud-brick houses in villages.

The report has, however, remained on the dusty shelves of Parliament, and no step has since been taken to put into implementation many pieces of advice included in the report.

Former Minister of Public Works and Settlement Zeki Ergezen said he chaired the meeting, which was attended by up to 400 participants. “We determined paths to follow against a major quake in the future. We listed all the dangers in the report. The report was, however, not put into operation,” he said, but did not point to any reason that prevented his ministry from acting on the report.

One in four buildings insured against quakes

Only one in every four buildings across Turkey is insured against earthquakes, according to İdris Serdar, the board president of the Natural Disaster Insurance Institution (DASK).

“When it comes to Elazığ, only slightly more than 15,000 houses out of a total of more than 87,000 carry earthquake insurance. This is equal to quake insurance of around 17 percent,” Serdar noted.

Serdar complained that people have many misconceptions about DASK, assuming that it is very expensive to insure their buildings against earthquakes. “The DASK cost for a 100-square-meter house in İstanbul is TL 136 for one year. This figure drops by up to 40 percent if you wish to renew your insurance for a second year,” he said.

According to Serdar, up to 33 percent of buildings in the Marmara region carry DASK, while this figure is around 32 percent for Central Anatolia. It is, however, lower in other regions. In the Aegean region, for example, around 26 percent of buildings are insured against earthquakes, while only 19 percent are in the Mediterranean region. This figure is 18 percent in the Black Sea region while it is 14 percent in the East and 11 percent in the Southeast.

Scientists disagree over likelihood of imminent quake in İstanbul

Geophysicists seem to disagree over the prospect of a major earthquake in or around İstanbul in the near future.

According to Geophysical Society of Turkey Honorary President Professor Ahmet Ercan, a major earthquake is not expected in İstanbul before 2015. “Our 40 scientists are working. We will announce when İstanbul will most likely be struck by an earthquake after we complete our studies,” he remarked.

Professor Okan Tüysüz, an academic at İstanbul Technical University (İTÜ), denied claims that the Elazığ quake would trigger an earthquake in İstanbul. “There is no link between the earthquake in Elazığ and an expected one in İstanbul. A magnitude 6.0 quake in Elazığ would not be able to trigger a new one in İstanbul,” he stated.

Chamber of Civil Engineers (İMO) Bursa branch head Necati Şahin, on the other hand, cautioned that his chamber expects a magnitude 7 or 7.5 earthquake in İstanbul between 2010 and 2014. “This is a serious risk. Though we are living with such danger, we have failed to take necessary measures thus far. We have to complete preparations against a major quake soon,” he said.