Strains between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government and the secular establishment have fueled speculation that elections set for July 2011 could be brought forward, although Erdoğan has repeatedly denied any such plans. Investors would favor a strong AK Party government, fearing a coalition government would bring instability. The pro-business AK Party will seek a third term in power.
The poll, conducted by the Konsensus polling firm, showed the AK Party with 39.6 percent of the vote. In the last election in 2007, the AK Party, which was first elected in 2002, won 46.6 percent of the vote. The main opposition secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP) would garner 23.1 percent and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) 16.5 percent, the Konsensus poll stated. The survey was taken between Feb. 24 and March 4 after an unprecedented crackdown on the military in which nearly 70 people including former heads of the air force and navy were arrested in a probe into an alleged anti-government conspiracy. The AK Party has also clashed with conservative judges and has threatened to call a referendum to curb their powers.
Opinion polls are not always reliable in Turkey. Compared to a previous poll by Konsensus published last month, the AK Party was down 2.8 percent, the CHP down 1.2 percent while the MHP was up 1.4 percent.
Erdoğan is hoping an economic recovery will boost the AK Party’s popularity ahead of next year’s scheduled vote. Before Turkey sank into a recession in 2009, the AK Party presided over years of strong economic growth and launched historic talks to join the European Union. But it is distrusted by Turkey’s powerful secular elite, including top judges and army generals, because of its roots in political Islam. The party denies any Islamist agenda.
