[NEWS ANALYSIS] Turkey-US to unite forces for smooth transition in Iraq

Yet it is obvious that much is at stake for Turkey as well as the rest of the international community even in the case of a considerably open and fair election. As the International Crisis Group (ICG) stresses, the true challenge will lie not in the elections but in forming the government, with several options for a probable coalition government. The absence of independent institutions and the presence of a partisan judiciary are factors that would not be helpful at all in this process of forming a new government, the ICG points out.

But unlike other volatile regions, the upcoming Iraqi elections and their aftermath are highly important for Ankara since destabilization in a neighboring country would have dire consequences for Turkey as well.

The specific problem facing Sunday’s election is the timing of forming the new government amid the planned withdrawal of US forces -- a coincidence that might have a fatal outcome due to the possibility of a new wave of violence after the elections.

A senior Turkish diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Today’s Zaman that there is a strong impulse on the US side to withdraw their forces from Iraq as soon as possible. The diplomat drew attention to US domestic debates suggesting that President Barack Obama is “turning out to be Jimmy Carter on foreign policy, although he’s no Jimmy Carter on domestic economic policy.” He added: “The US would like to get rid of the Iraq problem via a withdrawal, yet it will not be that easy.”

Behind the scenes

At this point, Ankara is well aware of the significance of the composition of the new government. “The equation which needs to be solved has multiple variables,” the same diplomat said, while emphasizing the vital need for continuation -- “which is currently going very well on the ground in Baghdad” -- in the post-election process as well.

An Associated Press report posted from Baghdad on Tuesday addressing Iran’s clear influence on the whole of Iraq said: “Iran isn’t the only neighbor with a stake in the election. Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey are among those thought to be quietly backing their favored factions.”

Ankara is, as expected, tight-lipped about its preferences on the elements of a new Iraqi government. According to the ICG’s Joost Hiltermann, whether Turkey and the US’s preferences match is not that important, but “one encouraging thing is that Turkey and the US are very much in tune and have harmony on the process of forming the new government.”

“With diminishing American leverage in Iraq, it is very important for the US to be working behind the scenes,” Hiltermann also notes. Indicating that the US’s performance behind the scenes has so far not worked very well, he suggests that Turkey has been doing it successfully to an important extent.

“The state remains so weak, its sovereignty so permeable and its political class so divided that it almost invites foreign interference,” the ICG recently said of Iraq.

Productivity of cooperation

The US has come a long way since, for example, they favored the decentralization of Iraq into semi-autonomous regions, while Turkey, right from the beginning, before the US invaded Iraq in 2003, fiercely defended Iraq’s territorial integrity, another senior Turkish diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Today’s Zaman when asked whether he found the current US approach to Iraq “sufficiently sophisticated” for a productive cooperation.

In the autumn of 2007, a nonbinding measure sponsored by now-Vice President, then-Sen. Joe Biden supporting a “federal system” that would divide Iraq into sectarian-dominated regions won unusually broad bipartisan support from the US Senate, passing 75 to 23.

“I feel that we know what we know and we don’t know what we don’t know,” then-US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld had said, in almost poetic remarks, back in May 2002, when asked whether he was confident that all the intelligence gathered by US defense and military had been adequately shared with other security agencies in the government. Ankara is apparently confident that the current US administration has a better understanding of Iraq, since they at least know that they don’t fully know everything vis-à-vis Iraq.

“They have finally noticed that Turkey has no ulterior motive other than having stability in a neighboring country, they have been involved in closer coordination on the ground -- for example through their embassy in Baghdad,” the diplomat said.

A senior US diplomat, meanwhile, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said Turkey and the US had many reasons for cooperation in Iraq since Iraq is an important potential partner for both countries.

“We talk with each other at every level and constantly. Turks’ arguments certainly ‘bulk-up’ the brain,” he added.

Ankara has been constantly telling Washington that “nuisance value” of the election results should be reduced by not letting those unrepresented groups becoming a “hostile entity” for the entire system.

“Risky moves should be avoided after elections. After the elections, during the forming of the government, there will be a bargaining process which is similar to a ‘scorpion’s dance’ -- where it is difficult to disengage without risking greater injury and during which each party will watch each other sharply. The key is not to have any injury at the end of the day which would risk agitating the injured party and its defenders to trigger a new wave of violence,” the diplomat said.