US committee vote on ‘genocide’ only start of a troubled period

Yet, this doesn't meant to say that Ankara has not been exerting intense efforts on all fronts for the rejection of the resolution, believing that its approval would bring ongoing normalization efforts between Ankara and Yerevan to a “standstill.” This is not the first time that the issue of official recognition of the Armenian genocide allegations has poisoned ties between NATO member Turkey and the United States. In 2007, Ankara recalled its ambassador to Washington for consultations after a US panel approved a similar bill.

“Our efforts are not aimed at doing away with another April 24; they are dedicated to salvaging the normalization process with Armenia, which we started with strong determination. That will stands firm. Doing away with April 24 would be a short-term goal that is not part of our vision,” a Turkish diplomat has stated.

Leading up to the possible approval of the resolution, which would call on US President Barack Obama to ensure that US policy formally refers to the events as “genocide” and to use that term when he delivers his annual message on the issue in April -- something Obama avoided doing last year, highly tense weeks are ahead for Ankara and Washington since the pressure on Obama will gradually mount.

In the meantime, Ankara apparently doesn’t have high hopes of Obama intervening in the issue to block the committee vote since the US president has had to deal with numerous “bread and butter domestic issues,” so that he would not tolerate having an attack by powerful US-based Armenian diaspora.

“The antidote to long-term effects is regional normalization in the South Caucasus. It is the eventual success of the normalization efforts which will strengthen Obama’s hand,” the same diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity, when asked whether Turkey might consider a hasty parliamentary ratification of the two protocols signed by Armenia and Turkey to give Obama the upper hand ahead of April 24. In Zurich on Oct. 10, the two countries signed the “Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations” and the “Protocol on the Development of Bilateral Relations.”

Ankara has been constantly explaining to Washington that the normalization process with Armenia didn’t start due to US pressure. Turkish officials also told US officials that applying pressure to Turkey has never yielded positive outcomes, the diplomat explained.

While making its point, Ankara cited as an example the Turkish Parliament’s rejection of a government motion on March 1, 2003 to allow US troops to open up a northern front against Iraq from Turkey, thus leading to the references to “March 1 syndrome” when talking about the bilateral relationship of the two NATO allies.

Despite being prepared for long weeks of “diplomatic gymnastics,” the Turkish capital, nevertheless, asserts that common sense will prevail at the end of the day and Obama will have a moment of contemplation after which he will decide to intervene at “the last minute” if a strong signal for having the resolution on the agenda of the US House floor emerges, taking into consideration his country’s high national interests which include Turkey’s vital cooperation in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Pressure on ties with US

There may be certain circles who want to up the pressure on Turkey through the approval of the resolution, stated Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, while speaking to a small group of journalists on Monday on a flight to Egypt for an official visit.

“But the nature of Turkey-US relations cannot tolerate such pressure,” Davutoğlu added.

Back in the fall of 2007, a House proposal, which would label as genocide the killing of Armenians nearly a century ago by Ottoman Turks, had inflamed US tension with Turkey, which says the death toll has been inflated and that the Armenians died during civil unrest, not organized genocide. However, support for the nonbinding resolution gradually declined after Turkey summoned its Washington ambassador back to Ankara and several lawmakers spoke out against it.

At the time, there were no normalization efforts between estranged neighbors Armenia and Turkey. The current ongoing process hit a rocky patch in January after the Armenian constitutional court upheld the legality of the protocols but underlined that they could not contradict Yerevan’s official position that the alleged Armenian genocide must be internationally recognized.

Apart from deep concerns over the US move, Ankara, however, doesn’t sound pessimistic for the future of Armenia-Turkey contact. An example is the “open-minded” bilateral meeting between Davutoğlu and Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan that took place in Kiev last week when the two attended the inauguration of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.

On his way to Egypt, Foreign Minister Davutoğlu recalled that the opposition parties have been criticizing the absence of a clear reference to the Nagorno-Karabakh territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the Armenian recognition of the Gümrü and Kars Agreements that established the Turkish-Armenian border in 1920 and 1921, respectively, within the protocols signed with Armenia.

“You cannot make progress if you lay down conditions. If we attempt to write down those elements, then [Armenia] will ask for recognition of ‘genocide’,” Davutoğlu said, adding that the protocol on the establishment of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey actually “confirms the mutual recognition of the existing border between the two countries as defined by the relevant treaties of international law.”

On the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Davutoğlu said that there is an expression saying “regional peace and stability.” “What we wean with this ‘region’ is obviously not Somalia,” he added.