Left-leaning voters long for new party, new leader
by
Özer Sencar & Ünal Bilir*

Conducted by interviewing 2,450 people in 39 districts in İstanbul on Feb. 5-9, our survey revealed that voters have certain reactions to political parties, particularly parties represented in Parliament, both from the government and the opposition benches. One of the reasons that have driven voters away from parties represented in Parliament is their dislike for the performance and rhetoric of the parties they support, while another reason is their longing for change -- and a solution-oriented policy. The survey further found that about a quarter of the electorate consists of floating voters, inclined to protest, who refrain from declaring their political attitudes, and that the voters who seek change and a solution tend to express their reactions in the form of political indifference and boycotts targeting both the government and the opposition while some of the voters are searching for a new political destination.

Greatest change in CHP supporters

A total of 31.5 percent of the people interviewed said they did not vote for the political party they voted for in the previous election because they did not like the existing leader or the candidates nominated by that party although they were still in tune with its ideology. A total of 35.6 percent of such voters cast their vote for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) while 20.7 percent of such voters supported the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

When the people interviewed were asked whether they would vote for the same party they voted for in the previous election, 60 percent said they would vote for the same party, 13.7 percent said they would support a different party, 8.4 percent would vote for a newly established party and 17.9 percent were undecided.

As can be concluded from these figures, about 40 percent of the electorate is reluctant or hesitant to vote for the party they previously supported. It is obvious that some of these voters who are unsatisfied with their parties are looking for a new party. This search, expressed by resentful voters, is translated into a quest for a new political movement among intellectuals, particularly in the left wing.

Asked whether a new leftist political party is needed, 55.4 percent of the people interviewed said “yes” and 38.0 percent said “no.” Among CHP supporters, 64.8 percent said there was a need for a new leftist political party, while among Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) supporters 72.4 percent answered the same way.

As for the right wing, 37.2 percent said there is a need for a new rightist party while 55.6 percent dismissed such a need. A breakdown of this figure shows that 45.3 percent of Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) supporters and 28.4 percent of AK Party voters believe a new right-wing party should be established. Overall, the greatest desire for a new party is felt by CHP voters on the left and MHP voters on the right.

Given the electorate’s reactions to and resentment of their parties, it may be asked how voters who have distanced, or are likely to distance, themselves from parties they traditionally supported shift in the political spectrum or among political parties. Looking at the findings of surveys conducted during the last two months, one can discern a tendency for the majority of resentful voters to become undecided voters and for a smaller group to support the Turkey Movement for Change (TDH), established by Şişli Mayor Mustafa Sarıgül.

When asked, “Would you consider voting for Mustafa Sarıgül?” in a survey conducted in January, 28 percent of the people interviewed said they may support Sarıgül. An examination of the political profile of these voters showed that 37.5 percent had voted for the CHP and 25.3 percent for the AK Party in local elections held on March 29, 2009. Furthermore, 47.3 percent of left-leaning voters said they might support Sarıgül’s party; this figure was 37.6 percent among right-leaning voters.

According to the findings of the current survey, 46.2 percent of CHP voters may support Sarıgül’s party while 19.4 percent of AK Party voters may do the same. Additionally, 62.4 percent from the left wing and 26.9 percent from the right wing would do the same. These findings suggest that left-leaning voters (social democrats, socialists, neo-nationalists and Atatürkists) who may support the Sarıgül movement outnumber rightist voters (Islamists, nationalists and idealists [ülkücü]) by 35.5 percentage points.

Sarıgül, who started his political career in İstanbul, appears to be received sympathetically by left-leaning voters as a rising leftist leader. As for voters from İstanbul, as many as 59.5 percent believe Sarıgül will introduce a change to Turkish politics and 63.7 percent think he may become the new leader of the left.

More than half of the voters who may vote for Sarıgül’s party are left-leaning voters (52 percent) and one-fifth (21.3 percent) are rightists. Those who say they may vote for Sarıgül’s party consist of left-leaning voters by almost half (47.3 percent) and rightist voters by one-third (32.9 percent). In addition to this, and given the fact that Sarıgül ranks fourth, equally with Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, after Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Abdullah Gül and Deniz Baykal in the list of most popular living politicians and statesmen, we can conclude that Sarıgül has a high chance of winning the leadership race of the left.